Lebed NIA Broadvision Facebook IPO

Revisiting the Broadvision touting by Lebed. Lebed continues to tout misinformation and outright lies.

On the 6 of January it stated that, "BVSN is in what will be the HOTTEST industry of 2011 with Facebook's IPO expected in April!"

On the 19th of January in its recent information it touted, "BVSN is finally going to receive the massive exposure it deserves at Digital London and then just a few weeks later in May will be the IPO of Facebook!"

Which in the case of Broadvision has very limited exposure to the social media in terms of revenue. It's other two products (K2 and QuickSilver) continue to decline in revenue and legacy maintenance revenue. ClearVale has not materially changed the outlook of the company and its continued declines in revenue and its cash flow. For four STRAIGHT YEARS Broadvision revenue has declined. Not a company which investors should warm up to if you like valuations to increase. High growth companies such as Netflix, VMWare shares have grown due in part to its expansion in revenue and product lines and strong management. Looking at the the charts Broadvision has been one of the worst performing stocks compared to the DOW, NASDAQ, and its peers.

In a span of a couple of weeks it has already stated a change in date with no sort of correction in its previous touting.

Besides that one issue that was raised by Timothy Sykes a noted independent investor, stated that Broadvision 10-Q filing with the SEC had only $37 million compared to the $56.79 million that Lebed stated. Again, if that were the case then Broadvision is trading a a significant premium over its previous misinformation.

The 10-Q can be founded here: http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8237436

Lebed continues to mislead investors and the general public regarding companies that it said it has done research. Without hard facts and details companies such as Broadvision are to be avoided.

Feel free to chime in over at the SEC, and file a report against Lebed for stating misinformation and have operations such as Lebed shut down.

http://www.sec.gov/complaint/select.shtml

Inflation

I haven't seen much of a change in terms of the short-term trends in terms of employment in the US.

However there was an interesting video clip from MSNBC. Inflation will rear its head throughout this year unless the money printing across the world is contained.

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080

2009 Unemployment Duration in the United States by State

From the NY Times, unemployment duration in the United States by state. Still a very difficult climate for hiring in the United States.

US Employment Unemployment Woes

Challenging times remain within the United States employment markets. For the last few months I've harped on the fact that growth within the job market has been relatively weak, especially when one takes into account the supply of new graduates and those that continued to be fired or let go due to the weak economy.

So I've looked through a number of charts from the US St. Louis government site that tells the tale of some of the problematic and in my opinion structural woes that faces the United States.

Department of Labor 2008 - 2018 Projections

The United States Department of Labor released their latest projection of what the future holds for US labor.

The labor force looks too decline as I've suggested. This just confirms that growth in the US will continue to decline unless something truly changes such as a competitive advantage, or technological advance helps the sagging growth in the US.

Also of note is the growth in the demographics such as the Hispanic population.

And where the growth in jobs are headed. Manufacturing and production seems to be on a steep decline.

The file can be downloaded through the following link (Please be aware this is a pdf file) :

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf

US Federal Beige Book Nov 2 2009

Employment, Wages, and PricesLabor market conditions remained weak since the last report, with further layoffs, sluggish hiring, and high levels of unemployment in most Districts. However, contacts in the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts reported that the pace of job cuts generally slowed in their regions, and most contacts in the Dallas District reported stable employment levels. Despite generally weak employment conditions, some signs of improvement were noted. For example, contacts in Boston reported that they were beginning to hire and reverse pay cuts or freezes that were implemented earlier in the year, and contacts in the St. Louis District reported that the service sector had started to expand recently. Expectations for the holiday season were mixed across Districts, with contacts in the New York and Dallas Districts reporting lighter-than-normal seasonal hiring and/or increases in the hours of existing employees, as opposed to hiring temporary workers, to meet the seasonal demand. On the other hand, most retailers in the Richmond District have hired the usual number of seasonal workers this year.

Districts generally reported little or no upward wage pressures, while some Districts noted upward pressure in commodity prices, and most Districts reported stable selling prices. Wages were largely reported to be holding steady in the Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Most Districts reported stable prices overall, although some reported higher input prices, largely for energy and other commodities used in production, with a limited ability to raise selling prices. Prices were reported as moderately lower in the Kansas City District, and downward price pressures were cited for some professional services and intermodal transportation firms in the Dallas District. Some makers of food products and chemicals in the Philadelphia District reported raising prices, and the prices of computer memory chips continued to firm in the San Francisco District. Retailers in several Districts indicated that they have managed inventory levels in an effort to prevent the steep price discounting that occurred last year, however, some promotional price discounting is expected through the holiday season.

Source: US Federal Reserve

Jobless recovery till December?

A key index shows that an economic recovery is having trouble gathering steam. It also hints that employment won’t edge up until the end of the year.

The nonprofit Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index fell slightly in August, down 0.1 percentage point from a revised July number. The index now stands at 88.1 and is down 18.5% from a year ago.

“The flatness of the (index) in recent months suggests that we won’t see job growth until the end of the year,” said Gad Levanon, the group’s senior economist. “The fact that the index cannot get off the ground is another sign of a weak recovery, perhaps a jobless one.”

Source: Conference Board

First-Time Jobless Claims Expected to Rise

"The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits likely rose last week, evidence that jobs remain scarce.

Wall Street economists forecast that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally-adjusted 555,000 last week from 550,000 the previous week, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls also is expected to increase slightly, to 6.1 million from 6.09 million.

Still, the economy isn't improving fast enough to spur greater hiring. Jobless benefit claims have trended down since topping 670,000 in early April, but remain far above the 325,000 per week associated with a healthy economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday said the recession is likely over, though he noted that the economy isn't likely to grow fast enough to lower unemployment anytime soon. Most economists expect the jobless rate to top 10 percent next year, up from its current 9.7 percent."

Source: AP

US Economy Faces Big Test Next Month

"The economy remains weak and will face a big test next month when the government starts winding down its massive support programs, banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

"There's not a lot of new job creation going on on Main Street—and the liquidity to the consumer and small business is still contracting," she said. "And it's very difficult to get the engine moving without a lot of government support within that. So when you slowly wean government supports, that's going to be the test that I think everyone's going to be watching starting in October."

Though economists generally believe the US is pulling out of a recession, unemployment remains high and most economic indicators are still showing only modest improvement.

"Where do the jobs come from?" she said. "Surely if this country becomes massively protectionist we'll build up manufacturing capability. Is that necessarily a good thing? No. There's not a lot of free capital for small business innovation—small business, period—and that's half the workforce."

Source CNBC

France’s unemployment rate climbs

"France’s unemployment rate climbed to the highest in at least three years in the second quarter as companies cut jobs in an effort to squeeze costs after the worst recession since World War II.

The jobless rate rose to 9.5% from a revised 8.9% in the first quarter, Paris-based statistics office Insee said today. Excluding France’s overseas territories, the unemployment rate increased to 9.1% from a revised 8.5% in the first three months of the year.

While France exited a yearlong recession in the second quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 0.3%, economists expect more job cuts as companies implement decisions taken when the economy was shrinking.

“Assuming the turning point in the economy came in the second quarter, that would imply unemployment peaking at the beginning of 2010 at the earliest,” Laurent Bilke, an economist at Nomura International in London, said by phone before today’s report. “Jobs decisions are very heavy, they’re the last thing you adjust.”

Companies such as Alcatel-Lucent SA and Air France-KLM Group are trimming their workforces to match weaker sales triggered by the recession.

Almost 700,000 jobs will be shed in 2009, Insee forecast last month. So far this year, 420,900 jobs have been lost, according to Labor and Finance Ministry numbers.

The government is preparing for further job cuts this year by hiring employment agencies to help jobseekers find temporary work. In June, the Finance Ministry began offering 1,000 euros (1,428) to companies for every person hired as an apprentice in an effort to combat youth unemployment. The measure is scheduled to remain in place for one year."

Source: Reuters

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This is an interesting piece. During the last conference call, Manpower said that the French market has stabilized. It will be interesting to hear Manpower provide more color regarding their French market where they are the market leader if they indeed see this market stabilize. The European market continues to see high unemployment rate and bleak signs of an upturn. Although France and Germany have seen an up tick, it remains to be determined to see if this is sustainable.

More Americans Than Anticipated File Jobless Claims

"Sept. 3 -- More Americans than anticipated filed jobless-benefit claims last week, indicating companies remain focused on cutting expenses as the economy emerges from its worst recession since the 1930s.  

Applications fell by 4,000 to 570,000 in the week ended Aug. 29, exceeding the 564,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance climbed. 

“We’re not making much progress in terms of the layoff picture,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., which correctly forecast the first-time filings figure. “These levels of initial claims are still consistent with declines in payrolls.” 

Manufacturers are still cutting staff. Whirlpool Corp., the world’s largest appliance maker, will close its Evansville, Indiana, manufacturing plant, resulting in the elimination of 1,100 jobs as the housing slowdown hurts demand."  

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. jobless claims rise by 15,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 15,000 to 576,000 in the week ending Aug. 15, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the highest level since July 25. The four-week average of initial claims also rose, by 4,250 to 570,000, and continuing claims climbed as well. For the week ending Aug. 8, continuing claims rose by 2,000 to 6.24 million. It was also the highest since July 25.

Source: marketwatch

Why You Can't Trust Those Jobs Figures

There was an interesting piece in Forbes (which I normally don't read) yesterday regarding the jobs numbers. It seems pretty clear cut to say that nobody should really trust these unemployment numbers. As they don't tell the whole truth of the unemployed.

"He says the U.S. is in a depression, and though the economy may have hit a “plateau,” it’s not about to rebound, as many stock investors apparently assume."

"Williams also doesn’t buy the official unemployment rates, which are based on a separate survey from the one used for the payroll numbers. He notes that in calculating its broadest jobless rate, the so-called "U-6," the Labor Department in 1994 stopped including unemployed workers who had stopped looking for a job for more than year. As this recession drags on, and despair over finding jobs mounts, that’s likely to distort the true labor picture.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate in July was 9.4%, one-tenth of percentage point lower than in June. The U-6 rate, which includes frustrated part-timers as well as those who have stopped looking, also fell slightly, to 16.3%. Williams figures that broader rate hit 20.6%, 25% higher than the government figure."

That's a very depressing sign if rates are actually as high as Williams suggests. Shadowstats has the same depressing outlook for the jobs market. I would even suggest that this temporary blip in hiring will face downwards pressure as once the stimulus runs its course. There is still plenty of risk that we might have to hit a double bottom in our economy to continue to weed out the excess capacity.

Source:http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/08/jobs-unemployment-layoffs-business-washington-figures.html?feed=rss_popstories

Canada employment still depressed

"Bucking predictions that the recession may have officially ended in July, Statistics Canada reported that Canada's labour market shed another 45,000 jobs as more people struggled to find work. It was a terrible month for the tourism sector and youth employment fell sharply from one of the worst summer job markets in decades.

The unemployment rate stayed at 8.6 per cent as discouraged workers appeared to leave the labour market and were not counted in the monthly tally from Statistics Canada.

Though the national unemployment rate was unchanged, one note of concern was that full-time employment and private sector jobs - the two most reliable indicators of labour market strength - both continued their downward trajectory.

"While a jobless recovery is possible, a job-destroying recovery isn't, since even if productivity gains allow it for a while, it leaves the household sector without the spending power to sustain it," wrote CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld.

"All told, these were much weaker numbers than anticipated."

"No one said it was going to be a smooth recovery, and especially not for employment," said BMO Capital Markets Economist Doug Porter.

• (Previous month in brackets.)
  -St. John's, N.L. 8.1 (7.6)
  -Halifax 6.0 (5.9)
  -Saint John, N.B. 5.0 (5.0)
  -Saguenay, Que. 9.8 (9.2)
  -Quebec 4.8 (4.6)
  -Trois-Rivieres, Que. 8.3 (8.2)
  -Sherbrooke, Que. 8.5 (9.1)
  -Montreal 9.6 (9.5)
  -Gatineau, Que. 5.4 (5.4)
  -Ottawa 6.0 (6.4)
  -Kingston, Ont. 7.2 (6.6)
  -Toronto 10.0 (9.6)
  -Hamilton 8.2 (7.1)
  -Kitchener, Ont. 9.9 (9.9)
  -London, Ont. 10.6 (10.4)
  -Oshawa, Ont. 9.7 (8.7)
  -St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 10.5 (10.9)
  -Sudbury, Ont. 9.8 (8.9)
  -Thunder Bay, Ont. 8.5 (8.8)
  -Windsor, Ont. 15.2 (14.4)
  -Winnipeg 5.3 (4.9)
  -Regina 3.2 (3.4)
  -Saskatoon 4.7 (4.6)
  -Calgary 6.9 (6.6)
  -Edmonton 7.0 (6.5)
  -Abbotsford, B.C. 9.0 (8.2)
  -Vancouver 7.0 (6.9)
  -Victoria 6.1 (6.3)

Source: The Canadian Press

SP500 Overvalued

Jeremy Grantham puts fair value at 880 on the S&P 500. That seems a bit precise. Let's call it 900.

So the SP500 is about at least 100 points overvalued at this point. I think all this momentum seems to be priced into the market. Any earnings warnings or shortfall will get crushed. So proceed with caution at this point.

A number of employment will be out during the next three days. I'll be watching to see how they compared to estimates.

Continued weak employment numbers - Manpower Recruiters

From the numbers released on Thursday unemployment ticked up again to 9.5% in the United States. With no real sign of stablizing in the job market, and a lack of clairty going forward. There is no reason to think any different with recruiting firms such as Manpower.

From their recent 10-K filing most of their major markets are down across the board. Just as with peers announcing a weak job market - I don't feel any different in regards to Manpower or any of the other recruiting competitors.

Manpower will be releasing its numbers later on this month, which I am sure many are looking forward. It is one thing to build scale in a business - but as we have seen the larger the scale the more likely they will fall during a downturn, and this is no different.

Once the economy and all the excess government stimulus wears off another downturn will resume. This will affect employment along with those that are under employed. This hasn't been brought up much in the mass media as much as unemployment. This continues to be a major problem not only in developed countries; but also in the emerging markets.