Inflation

I haven't seen much of a change in terms of the short-term trends in terms of employment in the US.

However there was an interesting video clip from MSNBC. Inflation will rear its head throughout this year unless the money printing across the world is contained.

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080

Scammers target desperate job seekers

There is an interesting article from the Los Angeles Times regarding scams in this difficult work environment.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-job-scams-20101024,0,2286668.story

So be careful when seeking something that maybe too good to be true.

Jobless Update

Here's a great look at what the offical numbers tell in terms of job losses in the United States.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703946504575470001733933356.html?mod=e2tw

Sector Updates

With recent release of 2Q 2010 earnings, I've like to touch on a few points.

It was good to see that revenue ticked up for most of these corporations. Although, I'm still cautious with the early developments of austerity measures in Europe, and the looming regulations and tax regulations in the United States, revenue did improve for the staffing sector.

Profitability does leave something to be desired, until there robust action in terms of revenue that is sustained in a normalized recovery, I am cautiously optimistic on the sector.

June 2010 Unemployment 125,000 Shed

The US continues to face challenges in its labor markets.

125,000 jobs were cut. While the private sector added a less than robust 83,000 jobs. Consensus estimate were for the creation of 110,000 jobs in the private sector.

Over 652,000 people left the labor force.

Average work week hours also declined, from 34.2 to 34.1 hours worked.

The economy continues to experience significant headwinds with cuts from the delayed decision of extended unemployment benefits, to the possible future austerity measures that the US may follow the rest of the world. Time will tell if there will be another jobs bill to stimulus the sluggish recovery.

2009 Unemployment Duration in the United States by State

From the NY Times, unemployment duration in the United States by state. Still a very difficult climate for hiring in the United States.

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah states his views

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah was quite temped in his views of the global growth story.

Bob Janjuah states that a massive turnaround in corporate behaviour in leverage, capex, investment, hiring and spending binge is extremely unlike for now and for the rest of this year.

This is a pretty honest assessment after all the rose colored glasses calls of a buoy hiring landscape for the staffing firms. However, premenant placement has barely budged from historical levels, and consumers continue to be selective on their purchasing behavior.

The U.S. also revised its GDP downwards to 3.0% rather than bullish estimates from firms such as Goldman Sachs of 3.7%. Besides that unemployment claims also missed estimates.

May 15 2010 Unemployment Survey Week

With today's release of the unemployment claims for survey week May 15, 2010, claims were above consensus.

471,000 vs. expectations of 440,000.
Continuing claims were also above expectations 4,625,000 vs. expectations of 4,610,000.

Unfortunately, unemployment claims will continue to rise. With the Census staffing most probable ending June 30, 2010 expect a dramatic uptick in weekly claims, and continuing claims.

Besides that business confidence, and continued worries in the Euro Zone, and the lack of collective reasoning in Europe may possibly spread and cause significant slowdowns across major regions of the world.

I have touched on this mainly on Robert Half International's largest segment is the United States , however other staffing groups have also seen very minimal uptick in hiring compared to historical rebounds in the economy. I remain very cautious, and a decline in the economy is more than probable at this point.

Source: DOL

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20100682.htm

Employment Trend Index rises - April 2010

The recovery in the labor markets is broadening out, according to a report released Monday by the Conference Board.

The board said that its April employment trends index increased 0.9% to 94.7, from a revised 93.9 in March, first reported as 94.4. The index has risen for eight consecutive months and is up 7.1% from a year ago.

The ETI report follows last Friday's government employment release that showed nonfarm payrolls increased 290,000 last month.

Despite that strong job gain, the board remains cautious about the jobs outlook.

"The employment trends index continued to rise in April, but its rate of growth has slowed in recent months," said Gad Levanon, associate director.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

TriNet Human Capital Index Employment Unemployment

TriNet released their latest monthly reading regarding employment today. Even as their are readings of green shoots in the economy, TriNet survey speaks otherwise. Their latest reading points to flat employment, rather than growth.

Source: TriNet

Innovative small technology and service companies slowed hiring against
broader U.S. averages during March, and while layoffs rose slightly, they
remained well below last year´s highs. Net employment growth appeared flat in
March, which may indicate that companies are waiting for signals about the
broader business climate.

Unemployment Rises in 27 States, Drops in 7 States February 2010

Twenty-seven states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 7 states and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 16 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the year, jobless rates increased in 46 states and the District of Columbia
and declined in 4 states. The national unemployment rate in February, 9.7
percent,remained unchanged from January, but was up from 8.2 percent a year
earlier.

Mish had an interesting piece on the unemployment picture in the US. Although, the employment picture has mildly risen from the bottom, unemployment continues to remain at elavated levels.

Source: Mish Economic

US Small-Business Optimism Falls FEB 2010

Small-business owners in the U.S. turned slightly more pessimistic in February, although employment readings--from the U.S.'s main source of new jobs--grew a shade more positive.

The Small Business Optimism Index lost 1.3 points to 88.0 last month, reported the National Federation of Independent Business in a press release Tuesday.

The NFIB noted that only two of 10 components posted gains last month.

The subindex covering expected business conditions dropped 10 points to a -9 reading, and sales expectations dropped 3 points to zero.

The NFIB said that owners complained "poor sales" was their top problem.

Source: Dow Jones Newswires

Jobless Claims Rise to 496,000 February 2010

This has been the second consecutive week where jobless claims has risen. This week the jobless claims has risen to 496,000 from 474,000 week ending in February 20. Jobless claims continues to face challenges compared to the consensus. There has been no reason to believe that job creation will happen in an instant. That's part of the reason for this blog to outline that the economy will take years for it to change its ways for a number of reasons.

Chart Source: BetaInvestment.com

US Employment Unemployment Woes

Challenging times remain within the United States employment markets. For the last few months I've harped on the fact that growth within the job market has been relatively weak, especially when one takes into account the supply of new graduates and those that continued to be fired or let go due to the weak economy.

So I've looked through a number of charts from the US St. Louis government site that tells the tale of some of the problematic and in my opinion structural woes that faces the United States.

Unemployment rate remains at 10% Dec 2009

With the release of today's numbers the recovery in the jobs market continues to be muted.

• Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 85,000 in December.
• Number of discouraged workers rose by 287,000 over the year to 929,000.
• Total hours worked in the economy were unchanged in December. The average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours, near the record low.
• An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.3% from 17.2%.

Department of Labor 2008 - 2018 Projections

The United States Department of Labor released their latest projection of what the future holds for US labor.

The labor force looks too decline as I've suggested. This just confirms that growth in the US will continue to decline unless something truly changes such as a competitive advantage, or technological advance helps the sagging growth in the US.

Also of note is the growth in the demographics such as the Hispanic population.

And where the growth in jobs are headed. Manufacturing and production seems to be on a steep decline.

The file can be downloaded through the following link (Please be aware this is a pdf file) :

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ecopro.pdf

Unemployment trending down

Entering 2010 the U.S. unemployment rate is at 10%. Although I still find very limited prospects for hiring from most large corporations, and small businesses in the US I still expect the unemployment rate to trend down.

This is partly due to the Census entering the hiring juggernaut. The US government is expected to hire around 800,000 individuals that will bring the unemployment rate down. This will look positive on a short term viewpoint, however longer term unemployment will still be at historical levels.

There will also be increased churn among employees as they look for the economy to improve to switch companies. Rates of disgruntle have increased as hourly wages, and hours worked have been cut dramatically. Until capacity utilization reaches a peak or robust levels there will continue to be a weak demand for labour.

US Federal Beige Book Nov 2 2009

Employment, Wages, and PricesLabor market conditions remained weak since the last report, with further layoffs, sluggish hiring, and high levels of unemployment in most Districts. However, contacts in the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts reported that the pace of job cuts generally slowed in their regions, and most contacts in the Dallas District reported stable employment levels. Despite generally weak employment conditions, some signs of improvement were noted. For example, contacts in Boston reported that they were beginning to hire and reverse pay cuts or freezes that were implemented earlier in the year, and contacts in the St. Louis District reported that the service sector had started to expand recently. Expectations for the holiday season were mixed across Districts, with contacts in the New York and Dallas Districts reporting lighter-than-normal seasonal hiring and/or increases in the hours of existing employees, as opposed to hiring temporary workers, to meet the seasonal demand. On the other hand, most retailers in the Richmond District have hired the usual number of seasonal workers this year.

Districts generally reported little or no upward wage pressures, while some Districts noted upward pressure in commodity prices, and most Districts reported stable selling prices. Wages were largely reported to be holding steady in the Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Most Districts reported stable prices overall, although some reported higher input prices, largely for energy and other commodities used in production, with a limited ability to raise selling prices. Prices were reported as moderately lower in the Kansas City District, and downward price pressures were cited for some professional services and intermodal transportation firms in the Dallas District. Some makers of food products and chemicals in the Philadelphia District reported raising prices, and the prices of computer memory chips continued to firm in the San Francisco District. Retailers in several Districts indicated that they have managed inventory levels in an effort to prevent the steep price discounting that occurred last year, however, some promotional price discounting is expected through the holiday season.

Source: US Federal Reserve

Economy still too weak to create jobs

"The recent economic data have been consistent with our view that the economy is recovering, but at a distinctly subpar pace," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients. "Growth looks too sluggish to lower the 10%+ unemployment rate to a meaningful degree anytime soon."

Ultimately, however, it's the economy's fundamental strength that matters, not any particular number. Most economists -- in the private sector and at the Federal Reserve - continue to believe in a disappointingly sluggish recovery that will only slowly bring the unemployment rate down.

Source : Marketwatch

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% vs. 9.9% expectation OCT 09

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million in the United States.
5.6 million had been out of work longer than six months, representing a record 35.6% of the unemployed.

The employment-population ratio fell from 58.8% to 58.5%.

Discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%