2009 Unemployment Duration in the United States by State

From the NY Times, unemployment duration in the United States by state. Still a very difficult climate for hiring in the United States.

First-Time Jobless Claims Expected to Rise

"The number of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits likely rose last week, evidence that jobs remain scarce.

Wall Street economists forecast that first-time claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally-adjusted 555,000 last week from 550,000 the previous week, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The number of people remaining on the jobless benefit rolls also is expected to increase slightly, to 6.1 million from 6.09 million.

Still, the economy isn't improving fast enough to spur greater hiring. Jobless benefit claims have trended down since topping 670,000 in early April, but remain far above the 325,000 per week associated with a healthy economy.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday said the recession is likely over, though he noted that the economy isn't likely to grow fast enough to lower unemployment anytime soon. Most economists expect the jobless rate to top 10 percent next year, up from its current 9.7 percent."

Source: AP

Private sector sheds 298,000 jobs in August: ADP survey

"WASHINGTON -- Employment in the U.S. private sector fell by 298,000 in August, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday. 

The drop suggests nonfarm payrolls may sink by more than the 250,000 anticipated by economists ahead of the government's much-anticipated report due out Friday morning."

Job creation is a problem right now. Especially, when a majority of the businesses in the United States are small businesses. With trouble attaining credit and capital to fund and expand their businesses, or even to have it stay afloat job growth will continue to be a problem.

With further job losses and unaccounted for discouraged workers, and part-time workers in the fold, this economy will not rebound at a staggering pace any time soon.  I look forward to Friday's numbers.

Source: marketwatch

Kelly Services falls on comparative performance

"Stifel Nicolaus analyst James Janesky said in a client note that he views all staffing and employment-related stocks unfavorably "amid continued weakness in the employment market and (we) believe there is potential for our entire ... group to pull back from current levels following the sharp run-up from early-March lows."

"Analyst Ty Govatos of C.L. King & Associates said the stocks could rise twofold or more as business improves in the next two to three years, but he cautioned that his calculations do not include risks that could halt the stocks' climb.

Kelly Services Inc., Manpower Inc. and other staffing companies will likely not perform as well as other companies, though they could still climb between 70 percent and 115 percent, he said in a client note."

Source: AP

Basically, I've been harping on the point that these employment, human resource stocks have been mostly overvalued. With such declines to their revenue and net income compared to the boom present in 2007, there is no way these companies such as Kelly Services and Manpower deserve such multiples.

The multiples that these stocks are trading at are mind blowing considering their businesses have faced tremendous downwards spiral since the 2007 boom.

Sales growth, earnings, operating margins have continued to decline and have only stabilized at a bottom. Rather then drive earnings the recent run up has been purely on speculation that we are entering another growth phase. With governmental debt at an all time high, and growth primary coming from government stimulus spending rather then from the private sector, consumers will continue to feel the brunt of this downturn.

End result is low levels of manufacturing. Tepid demand.

China's stimulus-fueled stock boom alarms Beijing

"But while investors expect the market -- up more than 80 percent this year -- to keep rising, Chinese leaders are alarmed. They worry that too much of the $1 trillion lending binge by state banks that paid for China's nascent revival was diverted into stocks and real estate, raising the danger of a boom and bust cycle and higher inflation less than two years after an earlier stock market bubble burst.

Beijing is trying to tighten credit controls without derailing the economic revival or causing a market crash -- a risky path at a time when Chinese leaders say a recovery is not firmly established.

"It's a very serious threat. The Chinese government is walking a tightrope," said Mark Williams, Asia economist for Capital Economics in London. "There is the question of what happens if they rein in lending, because there is really no strong evidence that private sector demand is picking up."

"Above 3,000 points, the benchmark index is just in the process of blowing a bigger and bigger bubble," said Wen Lijun, an analyst for Nanjing Securities. "It is just excessive liquidity and no other reason."

Source: AP