RBS analyst Bob Janjuah states his views

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah was quite temped in his views of the global growth story.

Bob Janjuah states that a massive turnaround in corporate behaviour in leverage, capex, investment, hiring and spending binge is extremely unlike for now and for the rest of this year.

This is a pretty honest assessment after all the rose colored glasses calls of a buoy hiring landscape for the staffing firms. However, premenant placement has barely budged from historical levels, and consumers continue to be selective on their purchasing behavior.

The U.S. also revised its GDP downwards to 3.0% rather than bullish estimates from firms such as Goldman Sachs of 3.7%. Besides that unemployment claims also missed estimates.

Small businesses don't see recovery panning out

NFIB index dipped from 88 to 86, and has been below the 90 level for 18 consective months.

"According to the NFIB's latest survey, most owners think business conditions will not improve in the next six months, few are hiring, and fewer than usual are investing in their business. "

Source: http://www.nfib.com/tabid/565/Default.aspx?cmsid=51254

Unemployment Rises in 27 States, Drops in 7 States February 2010

Twenty-seven states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 7 states and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 16 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Over the year, jobless rates increased in 46 states and the District of Columbia
and declined in 4 states. The national unemployment rate in February, 9.7
percent,remained unchanged from January, but was up from 8.2 percent a year
earlier.

Mish had an interesting piece on the unemployment picture in the US. Although, the employment picture has mildly risen from the bottom, unemployment continues to remain at elavated levels.

Source: Mish Economic

US Federal Beige Book Nov 2 2009

Employment, Wages, and PricesLabor market conditions remained weak since the last report, with further layoffs, sluggish hiring, and high levels of unemployment in most Districts. However, contacts in the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts reported that the pace of job cuts generally slowed in their regions, and most contacts in the Dallas District reported stable employment levels. Despite generally weak employment conditions, some signs of improvement were noted. For example, contacts in Boston reported that they were beginning to hire and reverse pay cuts or freezes that were implemented earlier in the year, and contacts in the St. Louis District reported that the service sector had started to expand recently. Expectations for the holiday season were mixed across Districts, with contacts in the New York and Dallas Districts reporting lighter-than-normal seasonal hiring and/or increases in the hours of existing employees, as opposed to hiring temporary workers, to meet the seasonal demand. On the other hand, most retailers in the Richmond District have hired the usual number of seasonal workers this year.

Districts generally reported little or no upward wage pressures, while some Districts noted upward pressure in commodity prices, and most Districts reported stable selling prices. Wages were largely reported to be holding steady in the Boston, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Most Districts reported stable prices overall, although some reported higher input prices, largely for energy and other commodities used in production, with a limited ability to raise selling prices. Prices were reported as moderately lower in the Kansas City District, and downward price pressures were cited for some professional services and intermodal transportation firms in the Dallas District. Some makers of food products and chemicals in the Philadelphia District reported raising prices, and the prices of computer memory chips continued to firm in the San Francisco District. Retailers in several Districts indicated that they have managed inventory levels in an effort to prevent the steep price discounting that occurred last year, however, some promotional price discounting is expected through the holiday season.

Source: US Federal Reserve