Scammers target desperate job seekers

There is an interesting article from the Los Angeles Times regarding scams in this difficult work environment.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-job-scams-20101024,0,2286668.story

So be careful when seeking something that maybe too good to be true.

Initial Claims Ending Week Oct 3 2009 US

Current the official unemployment rate in the US is 9.8%. Economist feel that it will take till 2013 to have our unemployment hit 5%.

""Never before has business shed so many workers so fast, so many people failed to find work who are looking for work, and so many dropped out of the labor force as in the current circumstance," said Allen Sinai at Decision Economics."

The Labor Department reported that initial claims fell 33,000 to 521,000 in the week ended Oct. 3.

However, the decrease in continuing claims likely reflects people exhausting their unemployment benefits after several months of looking for work. This does not reflect that jobs are abundant, nor does it mean that economic conditions have improved dramatically.

Sept 2009 Unemployment Numbers

Pretty bleak numbers came out this past Friday.

263,000 jobs lost vs. estimate of 175,000

Job losses up to 7.2 million

While the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8%

785,000 had stated that they were not working through a household study, rather then employer study.

U-6 rises from 16.8% to 17%. A clear tale that businesses continue to generate weak business growth for their products and services. The U-6 includes part-timers who want  full-time work but can't find one.

Weekly hours ticked down from 33.1 to 33.0. This continues to be a weak number especially when employers tend to add hours to current employees rather then hire temporary workers at the first sign of an improving economy. Staffing firms such as Robert Half, Manpower have said they see some regions stabilize. However, most regions continue to be weak in growth. I will touch on the point that certain stocks in this sector continue to be richly and overly priced.

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Projects a Weak Hiring Pace for Q4 2009

"U.S. employers plan to keep their staffing levels relatively stable during Quarter 4 2009, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.

"The hiring intentions of U.S. companies continue to be sluggish," said Manpower Inc. Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres. "While there are areas within the U.S. which are showing an uptick, we have yet to see the robust hiring intentions that would indicate a full labor market recovery."

Of the more than 28,000 employers surveyed, a significant 69% expect no change in their October - December hiring plans. Twelve percent anticipate an increase in staff levels, while 14% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of -2%. After seasonal adjustment, the Net Employment Outlook becomes -3%, the weakest in the history of the survey, which began in 1962. The final 5% of employers indicated they were undecided about their hiring intentions.

"Despite some moderating signs, such as the considerable number of employers that plan to maintain or increase staff levels, there will continue to be challenges for both job seekers and employers in the coming months," said Jonas Prising, Manpower president of the Americas. "Hiring in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, for instance, is expected to be down in the fourth quarter, suggesting that employers will not be adding the quantity of holiday hires they have in the past.""

Source: Manpower

Fewer planning to add in the 4Q 2009

"The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released Tuesday shows 8 percent of surveyed employers in the area plan to hire workers from October to December, while 9 percent are planning to cut employees. Three-quarters of all surveyed employers aren’t planning any change for staffing levels, while 8 percent said they’re uncertain of hiring plans.

The nationwide outlook for the fourth quarter found more employers planning to take action, though more are eyeing cuts than additions. Manpower’s national survey of more than 28,000 employers found 12 percent plan to hire, 14 percent plan to cut and 69 percent don’t plan any changes.

Manpower noted that while the majority of employers plans to hold staffing levels steady or add workers, the employment outlook for the fourth quarter was weaker for all regions of the U.S. compared with last year. The outlook for the Midwest, compared with other regions, was stable, the Milwaukee-based firm said."

Source: Business First

As I have continued to point out that growth in hiring continues to be weak. Moving along the bottom does not mean growth. It'll be interesting to see if the stimulus will lead to job growth or not. Without a temporary pop in the growth of jobs, another recession maybe coming.

August 2009 Employment Report - BLS

Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Job Losses Are Not The Problem

"The fact is, job creation and job destruction take place during booms at rates that are not dramatically different from the rates during recessions. It’s just the difference between the two that changes. In a typical boom quarter, about 7 million jobs are destroyed, and about 8 million are created. In a typical recession quarter, about 8 million are destroyed and about 7 million are created. There just isn’t much support for the idea that recessions give us a special ability to reallocate resources more intensely than we do during a boom or a period of normal growth. “Creative destruction” is a dynamic process that continues all the time, not one that occurs in separate phases of creation and destruction."

Source: http://blog.andyharless.com/2009/08/job-losses-are-not-problem.html

Euro zone joblessness at 10-year high

"In particular, higher unemployment lowers the ability of workers or unions to negotiate big wage increases -- and with a time lag between rising unemployment and wages, this downward pressure on inflation may continue for a long time to come."

"Spain had Europe's highest unemployment rate in June at 18.1 percent, followed by Baltic nations Latvia at 17.2 percent and Estonia at 17 percent. A third of Spanish under-25s can't find a job, it said.

Jobs are disappearing in all EU nations, Eurostat said, but Germany has seen the smallest rate of increase in its employment rate over the year, growing from 7.3 percent to 7.7 percent.

"Expect unemployment to rise further well into 2010," said Jorg Radeke, economist at the Centre for Economic and Business Research."

Source: AP

Unemployment Around the World

Source: VisualEconomics

Cloud over U.S. payrolls: job hunters take summer off

"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Better-than-expected July jobs numbers have numerous private economists heralding the end of the recession, but the Obama administration is taking a more guarded view because of a worrisome rise in long-term unemployment and a drop in labor force participation."

""We believe this drop in joblessness will prove to be temporary. With the summer in full swing, we assume a larger than usual number of unemployed Americans decided to take a break from job hunting," said Bernard Baumohl, president of the Economic Outlook in Princeton Junction, New Jersey. "It's been a horrible labor market, so who could blame them?"

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5765FG20090807

Meltdown 101: State unemployment by the numbers

STATES OF PAIN
15 percent: Michigan's unemployment rate, the nation's highest
12.7 percent: Rhode Island's unemployment rate, the second highest
12.5 percent: Nevada's rate
11.9 percent: California's rate
11.9 percent: Oregon's rate
__
STATES OF CONTENTMENT
4.2 percent: North Dakota's unemployment rate, the nation's lowest
4.9 percent: Nebraska's rate, the second lowest
4.9 percent: South Dakota's rate
6 percent: Utah's rate
6.5 percent: Wyoming's rate
6.5 percent: Oklahoma's rate
__
JOB GAINERS
62,100: Jobs added in New York in July
38,100: Jobs added in Michigan
37,900: Jobs added in Texas
15,600: Jobs added in Tennessee
13,200: Jobs added in District of Columbia
__
JOB LOSERS
35,800: Jobs lost in California
26,400: Jobs lost in North Carolina
25,200: Jobs lost in Florida
13,000: Jobs lost in Illinois
__
WESTERN WOES
10.5 percent: Unemployment in the Western region
10.2 percent: Unemployment in the Midwest
9.3 percent: Unemployment in the South
8.7 percent: Unemployment in the Northeast

Source: CNBC

U.S. jobless claims rise by 15,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 15,000 to 576,000 in the week ending Aug. 15, the Labor Department reported Thursday. It was the highest level since July 25. The four-week average of initial claims also rose, by 4,250 to 570,000, and continuing claims climbed as well. For the week ending Aug. 8, continuing claims rose by 2,000 to 6.24 million. It was also the highest since July 25.

Source: marketwatch

The U.S. Economy: Time for a Real Jobs Stimulus?

"Indeed, the current situation is stark. When people say there are no jobs out there, it's true. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, at the start of the recession in December 2007, the ratio of job seekers to job openings was 1.5 to 1. Now six unemployed workers chase every available job. It's a brutal game of musical chairs in which a great many people lose and spiral downward economically with disastrous consequences, not only for themselves and their families, but also for communities that were once productive and prosperous.

The Obama Administration and economists hailed the dip in July unemployment to 9.4% from the 9.5% level in June as an indication that the economy is beginning to recover. But the drop in unemployment is deceptive. Employers shed another 155,000 jobs in July. And the unemployment rate would have gone up, possibly to 9.7%, if the 400,000 Americans who had previously been searching for a job (but became so discouraged they stopped) had continued to seek employment in July. Economists expect the job picture to remain bleak well into 2010.

The standard unemployment number excludes both those who have given up looking for a job and those who have taken part-time jobs but want full-time work. Include them and the number jumps to 20% or higher in states such as Michigan, California, Rhode Island and Oregon, with Tennessee, Nevada and other states in the high teens.

Why isn't the $787 billion stimulus bill helping unemployment? It was never designed to be a jobs program. Instead it is an ambitious policy prescription to restart — and redirect — the economy in new directions over the next three years. Stimulus spending is not a fast-infusion jobs program, nor is it always targeted toward the hardest-hit states. For example, stimulus road-building largely bypasses large metropolitan regions where antiquated infrastructure snarls traffic to focus on rural areas and smaller states.

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1917001,00.html

Source: Time

Job Search Firms: Big Pitches at Big Fees, but Few Jobs

"“Career management” or “career marketing” companies like ITS, which charge large up-front fees, are easy to stumble upon on employment Web sites. Often, as in Mr. Fischman’s case, they contact job seekers after they post their résumés. They usually focus on professionals and managers, massaging their egos by boasting that they accept only the most marketable candidates. Some companies place advertisements that appear to be job postings but instead are lures for sales pitches."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/17/us/17career.html?_r=2&hp

Source: New York Times

Be careful everyone when it comes to job agencies that lure you with amazing jobs if they ask you for an upfront "search" fee.

IBM union Layoffs could hit 16,000 by year's end

IBM is reducing headcount in the United States.

"This means that the best information on IBM's workforce reduction in the U.S. come from two sources: The company's own annual report, which shows the year-to-year changes in its U.S. workforce, and the Alliance@IBM.

The Alliance says it has counted about 184 employees who have been laid off in the most recent round of cuts, based on employee information packets it received so far. But it believes the number exceeds that, according to Lee Conrad, the union's national coordinator.
In January, Conrad estimated that as many as 16,000 employees may be cut this year and it's standing by that figure. Based on its count so far, at least 10,000 employees have already been culled from the workforce because of the recession and offshoring.

"It is not right that IBM continues to keep job cut numbers, locations and divisions secret," said Conrad in an email. "IBM needs to come clean on how many jobs are being terminated as the work is offshored. We call for full transparency." The Alliance@IBM is a Communications Workers of America local that doesn't have enough members to gain official recognition as a bargaining unit."

Unemployment Insurance Data Summary

http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/content/data_stats/datasum09/DataSum_2009_1.pdf

This a great site from the government (United States related) for those that are unemployed and want to look at a comparison of how their state is fairing versus the rest of the nation.

Very helpful if you feel that you are nearing the exhaustion of your benefits.

Silicon Valley Unemployment Skyrockets

Source:WSJ

So with the "green shoots" producing a -1.0% GDP this recent quarter. Let's take a gander at unemployment in the America's tech hub. With unemployment rising above levels during the dot.com this recession has caused a major destruction of wealth. With numerous layoffs by the tech giants, there are risks that remain in this recovery. A jobless growth may still be on the horizon until the private sector picks up.

Governments maybe less incline to boost the economy through continued stimulus packages.

Handbook for the unemployed

This is a good site for those that are unemployed and need to gather themselves in these difficult times.

http://www.revivalcircle.com/

The New Joblessness

"The Federal Reserve now expects unemployment to surpass 10 percent (the postwar high was 10.8 percent in 1982). By almost every other measure, ours is already the worst job environment since the Great Depression. The economy has shed 6.5 million jobs — nearly 5 percent of the total, far outstripping the 3 percent that were lost in the early ’80s. Economists fear that even when the economy turns around, the job market will be stagnant. Keith Hall, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, sums it up as “an ugly picture out there.”

Not only are firms laying off redundant workers, but they seem to be cutting into the bone. Hall says the absence of hoarding means that firms do not expect business to pick up soon. This is supported by other evidence, like a doubling in the number of involuntary part-time workers (there are nine million of them) and the shrinking workweek, now 33 hours — the shortest ever recorded. Presumably, before companies start to rehire laid-off workers, they will ask their current employees to work more.

It’s hard to give a definitive explanation for this trend, but among the reasons are a decline in innovation in the aftermath of the tech boom, leading to fewer new businesses, and the aging of the population. More people have dropped out of the work force, and a smaller work force tends to dampen job totals. The percentage of adults who are working has fallen from 64 at the end of the Clinton era to only 59.5 now."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/magazine/26FOB-WWLN-t.html

NYC Unemployment Hits 9.5%

Reported from the nydailynews:

"The jobless rate in New York rose to a 12-year high of 9.5% last month, equaling the nationwide rate for the first time in the recession."

This is no surprise considering that the lost of jobs in the financial sector leads to declines in service jobs from the local bussers to the newspaper vendors down Main St. Lets wait and see what the backend sitmulus will do for this economy.

Source: http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/07/17/2009-07-17_jobless_rate_hits_95_here_12yr_city_high_matches_dismal_national_figures.html