Economy still too weak to create jobs

"The recent economic data have been consistent with our view that the economy is recovering, but at a distinctly subpar pace," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients. "Growth looks too sluggish to lower the 10%+ unemployment rate to a meaningful degree anytime soon."

Ultimately, however, it's the economy's fundamental strength that matters, not any particular number. Most economists -- in the private sector and at the Federal Reserve - continue to believe in a disappointingly sluggish recovery that will only slowly bring the unemployment rate down.

Source : Marketwatch

Unemployment compensation tax skyrocketing

Unemployment compensation tax has not been a widely discussed issued among the rising unemployment rate. States in the US are having difficulties paying unemployment claims due to the significant rise in unemployment. States have to resort to bumping up compensation tax such as an example with Florida, which has to increase unemployment tax by 12x from $8.40 for every employee to $100.30.

There are 33 states which will increase their compensation taxes next year. This will make small businesses which continue to be cautious with regards to credit, and expansion will now find hiring or retaining employees more expensive. Although contract and temporary workers may see a slight uptick, these positions will likely be mute to the unemployment rate, and claims will continue to be at elevated levels. Without sustained job creation and longer work hours for current employees, these temporary positions will likely see very minimal increases. Hence, why I've been very cautious with regards to investing in these employment services stocks.

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% vs. 9.9% expectation OCT 09

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million in the United States.
5.6 million had been out of work longer than six months, representing a record 35.6% of the unemployed.

The employment-population ratio fell from 58.8% to 58.5%.

Discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%

Administaff ASF 3Q 2009 Earnings

For the third quarter 2009, the company reported net income of $5.8 million, or $0.23 earnings per diluted share. For the nine months ended September 30, 2009, the company reported net income of $19.4 million and earnings per diluted share of $0.77

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Administaff beat EPS by .01, while revenues were light of consensus. Administaff is in a bad segment of the economy. With credit continued to be constrained and health costs continues to pressure employers, Administaff will have to pray that the economy can right itself in a positive direction.

I remain cautious on the business services sector till there is a defined upturn in employment demand.

Initial Jobless Claims Fell by 1,000 to 530,000; Jobless Benefits Plunged 148,000 to 5.8 Million.

Initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 530,000, a smaller drop than predicted by analysts. The total number of people receiving jobless benefits plunged 148,000 to 5.8 million. That's the lowest number of total claims since March, and the biggest weekly drop since July.

Source: Investors

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The jobless claims disappointed somewhat with the small marginal drop in weekly claims. However the continuing claims dropped nicely to 5.8 Million. This however maybe due to a larger then expected drop in people's benefits expiring.

Looking ahead next week is the monthly jobs report. This may rise to 9.9%. So even with the better then expected GDP numbers, employment continues to be a lagging indicator of improvement.

The United States continues to add debt to get itself out of this recession, with the auto clunker program, and the first time home buyers tax incentive, without these consumer offers growth would have continued to remain tepid.

Taleo 3Q 2009 Earnings

Taleo beats by$0.04 and beat on revs for the Q3 earnings of $0.20 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.16, revenues rose 8.7% year/year to $50.7 mln vs the $49.9 mln consensus.
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Taleo growth story continues although at lower levels with 9% growth this third quarter. Operating basis Taleo managed to break even which is a good sign; however the macro economy continues to be weak which may continue to pressure future growth going forward. Taleo seems to be well positioned even as growth in the employment sector continues to be weak in the near term.

Robert Half International Q3 09

Robert Half International reported .02 better than First Call consensus of .04 estimate. Revenue fell year o/ year 37.4% to 725.9 million which was light of the $729.3 million consensus.

"While the global business environment during the third quarter remained challenging, year-over-year revenue declines in our staffing operations continued to moderate and, on a sequential basis, we saw some improvement in revenues in September."

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My take on RHI is that they did a remarkable job of cost cutting, and continues to operate with what they got. They don't have any plans to add space, thus they have controlled their debt at remarkable levels. 

The take from the conference call is that they see business for the most part stabilizing. Although, it is too early to tell if this will be more then a mild up tick.

Margins have been affected mildly, while they are able to grow near their top line revenue.

Perm employment has also been better then expected, although this is a highly variable space.

I wouldn't invest in RHI till there is more stabilizing, although I do find that their business is mildly attractive due to the very low debt, and very good cost controls.