Job Search Firms: Big Pitches at Big Fees, but Few Jobs

"“Career management” or “career marketing” companies like ITS, which charge large up-front fees, are easy to stumble upon on employment Web sites. Often, as in Mr. Fischman’s case, they contact job seekers after they post their résumés. They usually focus on professionals and managers, massaging their egos by boasting that they accept only the most marketable candidates. Some companies place advertisements that appear to be job postings but instead are lures for sales pitches."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/17/us/17career.html?_r=2&hp

Source: New York Times

Be careful everyone when it comes to job agencies that lure you with amazing jobs if they ask you for an upfront "search" fee.

FDI Falls in China

Foreign direct investment in China fell for a tenth straight month in July as companies stalled expansion plans amid the global financial crisis. 

Investment declined 35.7 percent from a year earlier, the commerce ministry said at a briefing in Beijing today. That compared with a 6.76 percent drop in June. 

Source: Bloomberg

This can be a problematic especially when the fastest growing economy in the world is not receiving as much foreign direct investment as they did last year. The government is providing loans to the locals, however this can only last so long as their monetary policy sees fit. FDI is the true growth driver for many emerging economies. Another reason to be cautious with this global recovery. Times are getting better, but not enough to feel that your job is safe, and that the good times are back.

Manpower received a revised rating from Moody's

"Moody's Investors Service downgraded Thursday the long-term debt ratings of Manpower Inc. to Baa3 from Baa2, saying the staffing company's profitability is expected to weaken further this year amid the recession.

The ratings agency also said Manpower's ratings outlook is stable, based on anticipated year-over-year revenue and profit declines in the last two quarters of 2009, driven by continued sagging demand for permanent-placement and temporary labor.

Moody's said the ratings anticipate modest revenue and profit growth in 2010 as global economies stabilize.

"The downgrade of Manpower's long term ratings reflects Moody's expectation that profitability, leverage and interest coverage metrics will continue to weaken sharply during the remainder of 2009 and will not recover to pre-recession levels over the next two years," Lenny Ajzenman, Moody's senior vice president, said in a statement.

"Manpower derives the majority of its revenues from Europe and we expect labor market conditions to remain difficult in key European markets into 2010," he said.

Manpower reported a 27 percent organic constant currency revenue decline in the second quarter of 2009, though signs of stabilization appeared in key markets such as Italy, France and the U.S.

The agency said Manpower has $1.1 billion of cash and cash equivalents -- compared to $873 million of funded debt -- which gives the company a solid liquidity cushion during a cyclical trough in the staffing business.

It also said Manpower benefits from a leading global market position and trends that support the long-term growth of the staffing sector.

Moody's downgraded Manpower's senior unsecured notes of Euro300 million due 2012 and its senior unsecured notes of Euro200 million due 2013 to Baa3 from Baa2."

Source: AP

Jobless Claims Rise to 558,000 in the United States

"Better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing, housing and employment indicate the deepest job cuts may have passed. At the same time, while analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News say the government’s stimulus spending will spur economic growth as of this quarter, they predict it won’t stop the jobless rate from reaching 10 percent and restraining consumer spending.

“The job market is no longer skidding out of control,” Carl Riccadonna, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. Nonetheless, he said, “while the stimulus is helping the economy gain traction, we’re not going to see a massive ramp-up in hiring because of it.”"

Source: Bloomberg

Although, we are seeing an improvement in the global economy because of stabilization. We are not seeing massive ramp up in growth as the market dictates. For employment to continue to improve manufacturing and consumer spending in the United States has to improve. Consumer spending still remain in depressed levels as there continues to be weak demand in high end products. I would continue to be cautious till more evidence from the government stimulus creates "real" jobs that provide evidence for the economy.

Why You Can't Trust Those Jobs Figures

There was an interesting piece in Forbes (which I normally don't read) yesterday regarding the jobs numbers. It seems pretty clear cut to say that nobody should really trust these unemployment numbers. As they don't tell the whole truth of the unemployed.

"He says the U.S. is in a depression, and though the economy may have hit a “plateau,” it’s not about to rebound, as many stock investors apparently assume."

"Williams also doesn’t buy the official unemployment rates, which are based on a separate survey from the one used for the payroll numbers. He notes that in calculating its broadest jobless rate, the so-called "U-6," the Labor Department in 1994 stopped including unemployed workers who had stopped looking for a job for more than year. As this recession drags on, and despair over finding jobs mounts, that’s likely to distort the true labor picture.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate in July was 9.4%, one-tenth of percentage point lower than in June. The U-6 rate, which includes frustrated part-timers as well as those who have stopped looking, also fell slightly, to 16.3%. Williams figures that broader rate hit 20.6%, 25% higher than the government figure."

That's a very depressing sign if rates are actually as high as Williams suggests. Shadowstats has the same depressing outlook for the jobs market. I would even suggest that this temporary blip in hiring will face downwards pressure as once the stimulus runs its course. There is still plenty of risk that we might have to hit a double bottom in our economy to continue to weed out the excess capacity.

Source:http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/08/jobs-unemployment-layoffs-business-washington-figures.html?feed=rss_popstories

Adecco post lost second quarter

"Aug. 11 -- Adecco SA, the world’s largest supplier of temporary workers, reported a surprise second- quarter loss.

Adecco’s net loss was 147 million euros ($208 million), as it took 246 million euros in charges for impaired goodwill and job cuts, the Glattbrugg, Switzerland-based company said in a statement today. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted net income of 32.8 million euros. Sales fell 31 percent to 3.6 billion euros in the quarter."

Source: Bloomberg

The numbers continue to be quite weak for the recruiting industry with no near term growth. Some pockets of strength and stablization, but that does not mean that growth is coming back. Especially, when many of these jobs are turning to in house recruiting.

Say for example the financial uptick in hiring. Although there is an uptick this does not mean that there is a continued longer term trend in hiring, just selective and longer term outlook for hiring.

Analyst getting it wrong

Analyst have a difficult time predicting future trends. Hence, be careful with estimates as nobody can really forecast the future. Remember the housing bubble, and all the other bubbles we have faced.

Source: Clusterstock