MAN Manpower Stock Valuations

So looking at the human resource/business services sector I'll put my opinion on the current valuations of Manpower. I picked Manpower because its valuation were the most out of line with its peer group.

With the recent business outlook survey, not all markets are created equally. I still believe that their larger markets will continue to face downside risk as employment remains choppy. A large portion of their revenue comes from the European market. The US market which is about 10% of Manpower's revenue's will be the first movers in the up tick in hiring. Still conditions in the US remain flat at best for hiring, with no robust outlook for the 4th quarter. Hiring continues to be muted till firms and small businesses find that there is a solid ground for this recovery. This recovery has been mostly stimulus funded. Private businesses which make the brunt of the jobs in the United States continue to face credit limitations and conditions that are less to their liking as the yesteryear. On a macro scale jobs continue to be scare. With an average of six applicants for every free opening, this also challenges the notion that temporary jobs are coming back with a vengeance. Temporary positions also continue to be scare and at a reduced hourly workload. With the average work week of permanent employees at 33.1 hours per week, what would the average temp worker get? These are some serious structural issues that everyone needs to ponder. Many of these jobs that were lost in this recession will not come back. And many workers will need to retrain and possess additional skills to find work.

The stock trades at a lofty valuation. At seventy-one times earnings, while the industry is a negative forty-six, and the S&P trading at eighteen times earnings, Manpower is very expensive compared to its industrial peers and to the S&P. While having very poor earnings and net income growth for the past two years. Unless you feel that valuations at this point merits the lofty valuations then you may look at taking a stake, however at its current valuations there are many other companies that offer significantly more upside and more consistent growth.

Some have said that they have changed the way they value MAN to Price to Book which places MAN at 1.6, while the industry at 2.62, and the S&P at 2.1. This looks historically cheaper then its average, however you also have to take into account how depressed Manpower's business is compared to historical levels. Unemployment around the world still continues to remain at elevated levels. Either way MAN is nearing the top if not the top of their valuations.

Book value is about thirty-two plus dollars a share. While intrinsic value is about forty-two dollars. Either way you are paying a significant premium compared to its peers. Earnings and growth usually lead to price appreciation in shares. Earnings and net income has continued to decline for this past year at alarming levels. At its current valuation you can make the case that MAN is overvalued.

Debt is another issue to be on the side of caution. Manpower has over 873+ million in debt. Manpower also has over 1.1 billion in cash. This all seems well and good, however if there is a protracted decline in their revenue, and net income this cash will continue to face pressure. In this environment there are plenty of companies that are operating at zero to minimal debt trading at much less of a premium compared to the market and its peer group. This includes many technology names with faster growth then say the highly competitive human resources sector. Technology will be the driver of innovation and expansion going forward, either through increases in demand, or through cost cutting. Hiring will remain flat or a tepid bounce from its bottom.

Please do your due diligence regarding your own research on MAN. The information that I provide is just a starter to your own research. The information is out there, and I am just providing a stepping stone for this research. It never hurts to research the holdings that you hold to make sound and educated decisions for long term appreciation.

Four Reasons That Unemployment Will Recover Slowly

- Consumers Are Still Scared: The Consumer Confidence Index that measures the mood and outlook of American consumers fell unexpectedly in July. While this number doesn’t tell the whole story, it’s clear that consumers remain nervous and economic recovery will be slow without consumers feeling good and spending money again. Sales are down significantly in most industries and most companies have used layoffs as a tool to cut costs to offset lagging sales. Until the consumer returns, businesses won’t be able to afford additional workers.

- Employers Will Help Existing Employees First: Most companies have been forced to take measures that have hurt their employees in some way during this recession. Workers used to working 40 hours a week suddenly found their hours cut in half. Benefit packages were reduced as employees experienced pay freezes and lost health benefits, 401K matches, and other key benefits of employment. Before employers open additional positions and start hiring new workers, many will want to take care of their current employees first. Hours, benefits, and compensation packages, will be restored in many companies before there is room for more headcount. A recent survey showed that 33% of employers plan to unfreeze salaries in the next six months and 79% plan to do so in the coming year.

- Some Industries Are Still Cutting Jobs: The recession has affected every industry differently. Some that experienced major difficulty early on made changes near the beginning of the recession and are now in a position to rebuild. Other industries hung in there month after month as the economy worsened and have started cost cutting measures more recently. While layoffs are down significantly, they’re not over and the jobs added to the economy in the coming months will likely be offset by jobs being lost in different lines of business.

- Employers Remain Cautious: Most businesses have been affected by recessions and downturns in the economy before, but this was no ordinary recession. As far as recessions go, it was violent and many of us were shocked by its severity. Even as there are signs of recovery being reported in economic numbers, employers that are still shell-shocked will not be looking to rebuild aggressively and are likely to approach their businesses more conservatively in the coming months.

David Wise, a business consultant with Hay Group, probably summed up the attitude of hiring managers best when he said, “Most companies want to go into fiscal 2010 with the layoffs and salary freezes behind them. The worst thing a company can do after tough times is loosen the reins before the horse is ready to run

Source: VisualEconomics

Structural Unemployment Worsens.

The number of people who've been out of work longer than six months soared by a record 584,000 to 5 million, accounting for more than a third of all unemployment for the first time on record.

This is an interesting situation. The unemployment rate ticked down, but that is discounting a large number of job seekers removed from the overall data. This removed about .2% to the overall unemployment rate. So although there was slight improvement in job losses, there continues to be elavated state of job losses.

Another problem is the number of hours worked. The average reported on Thursday is 33.1, a tick up of 400,000+ jobs. However the United States is still running at very low historical hourly work rates. This will lead to reduced spending, and cause retailers to hire as few workers as needed. This continued slow pace of added jobs will limit the amount of hiring that the private sector will employ.

Robert Half International Earnings Q2 2009

So from AP Robert Half announced earnings.

"second-quarter profit dropped 93 percent as unemployment jumped amid the recession"

"For the period ended June 30, the company posted net income after paying preferred dividends of $4.8 million, or 3 cents per share, compared with $72.3 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Revenue fell 39 percent to $749.9 million from $1.22 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected, on average, earnings of 3 cents per share on slightly higher revenue of $755.4 million."

"Robert Half's revenue comes mainly from fees it charges for staffing consulting and services."

"Messmer (chairman and CEO), though, said he was encouraged that "sequential declines (in employment numbers) were significantly less than those reported in the previous quarters.""

Quote to take from their Q & A session:

"Keith Waddell

I guess we would say, outside the US, in the UK and Canada, the pace of the declines has improved. Continental Europe and Asia, the pace of the declines is either the same or worse. When you put them all together, the sequential decline outside the US for this past quarter was about the same as it was the prior quarter, although the components were different.

So, clearly Continental Europe and Asia were later to the game. But that being said; they've clearly caught the same cold that the US had, and are later in the results they are reporting and their impact of the downturn. So, the stabilization trends, may frankly when we talk about eight weeks of stable, that is consolidated and US has actually improved a little bit to offset the decline outside the US."



Yet there is still a decline in revenue. This has not been any different from technology companies reporting a decline in their revenue. What is a catalyst for growth? The stimulus? Rebound in the capital markets?

The main problem is that consumer demand continues to decline. Those with jobs are reluctant to spend. Those without are saving their walnuts for another season or possibly year. There has been a fundamental shift in the consumer which is a large component of the United States economy, which other economies around the world also become affected. Just as companies are trying to save money and invest in R&D most companies still do not see an upturn in the near future. A jobless recovery happened after the dot.com implosion, how is this any different.

Revenues will continue to be light especially in the human resources sector. Besides consumer spending small business are indirectly affected by this downturn. Without the capital and the resources to grow their business so does the need for services from a large recruitment agency. Why pay X amount of dollars when X recruitment agency is able to undercut them with the same service offerings. This becomes a low margin business with human capital turning from an asset to a liability. Companies with scale such as Manpower needs to continue to contain cost through reduction in headcount, and invest more in technology.

Trends such as contracting seem to be growing through off base online vendors. Recruitment agencies have no control over this increase in independent contracting.

Tomorrow is MAN's earnings, lets wait and see if this becomes gloom and doom or is there a silver lining in the horizon.

Great research tool for recruiters

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