Lebed National Inflation Association NIA Shenanigans

Recently the NIA recent their recent tout of Broadvision with some additional fluff.

"We don't expect BVSN to dominate this space like Facebook dominates their space. Remember, even just a very small 3% market share and price/sales ratio of 10 (Facebook's price/sales ratio is 27), would give BVSN a market cap of $1.92 billion and a share price of $417 in 2016! The market is forward looking, so NIA expects BVSN to trade at substantially higher levels in the days and weeks to come!"

The NIA which is an unlicensed entity is again touting stocks with arbitrary valuations that it states, even as they continue to sell with limited disclosure in their near daily touting.

What the NIA hasn't presented to the investing community is that Broadvision CFO recently filed to sell 180,000+ shares to the market. NIA continues to tout a looming "short squeeze" even as the CFO himself is releasing additional shares to the market.

As stated in the filings and on the fool.com:

"perhaps the biggest news of the night came from CFO, Shin-Yuan Tzou, who filed to sell 180,713 shares at $40.73"

Don't get sucker punched by the non-stop touting by the NIA who has only ruined their own reputation by jumping on the bandwagon of selected quotes by a number of well known individuals.

Don't forget that this company continues to bleed cash and faces looming and continued drop in revenue. With only one prospect for potential revenue growth with ClearVale their entire future lies on this one product line. If they fail which there is a huge possibility amid the numerous competitive space that Broadvision is present then there may be continued dilution of Broadvision shares. This includes potentially raising funds to fix this decade long mess that Broadvision has presented itself with.

Broadvision BVSN

Today another organization released information regarding Broadvision. The continuous hype by the National Inflation Association has been countered by the Association of International Deflation Society (AIDS).

A must read below regarding the shenanigans by Broadvision, Lebed, and the National Inflation Association (NIA) itself.

http://www.aid-society.org/Top-Deflationary-Stock-Pick.html

Lebed continues tout of Broadvision BVSN

Lebed recently released another tout of Broadvision. Nothing new in the e-mail has a material effect on revenues near term.

In his latest tout Lebed continues to tout the number of customers that Broadvision won in 2011 however he continues to fail to disclose the revenue number that these customers totaled.

What Lebed fails to disclose is the quality of customer wins for Broadvision. Recently reported in the fourth quarter Jive Software stated its customer wins include the following:

"Signed new and expanded customer relationships including ACE Group, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP/UK, SAP and Thomson Reuters among others"

Besides that Jive also expanded on its customer partnership as stated in the following:

Expanded relationships with leading global system integrators Accenture,CapGemini and Hewlett-Packard"

Lebed fails to disclose this information as it continues to show that Broadvision is facing a very challenging path forward to justify its lofty valuation. Without sizable revenue and cash flow Broadvision will be significantly overvalued compared to its peers in the software space. With paltry revenues from the ClearVale platform revenues continue and remain lofty by value and in terms of growth investors.

Jive Software one of Broadvision's largest competitor in the social media space reported 4th quarter revenues of $22.5 million which was up 53% year over year.

While 2011 total revenue reported was $77.3 million which was up 67% year over year.

Again Lebed fails to state Broadvision's declining revenue for the past decade.

Jive also has a cash position of over $180.6 million of which $72 million came from its recent initial public offering. What Lebed fails to state is Jive's cash position compared to Broadvison which has been cash flow negative. Their legacy products continue to decline in value as customers continue to leave for larger and more flexible databases.

Lebed continues to tout that Broadvision should receive a higher valuation yet as Broadvision has stated in is recent conference call that there is no company developments to disclose that would explain the run-up. Again the National Inflation Association (NIA) and Marlin Capital hold a significant amount of the float. Be careful of these touts as fundamentals in due time will expose of this tout.

Jive Software Social Media Platform

With the recent hype of the depressed corporation Broadvision comes additional spotlight of stocks in the space. Jive Software the leader in this space today had new price targets by large Wall Street firms.

Jive Software initiated with a Neutral at Goldman
Target $16

Jive Software initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Target $20

Jive Software initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Valuation range is $15-17

Jonathan Lebed Fox Business Interview

As discussed in an earlier post that Jonathan Lebed has been hyping a negative growth, negative earnings company.

Here Lebed in an interview on Fox Business gives an interview of his practices or there lack of it. The lack of ethical behavior is apparent as the prior post of Broadvision suggests. Without looking at the 10-Q one would have foolishly thought that Broadvision has more cash than it suggested by Lebed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFcgwZ3xjJg

The company that Lebed had touted is currently trading at $0.00. The stock Surfect Holdings Inc SUFH was $0.20 when Lebed had touted it with a confidence rating of 2. If you would have bought this and not got out in time you would have been writing this off since the company is defunct.

Lebed NIA Broadvision Facebook IPO

Revisiting the Broadvision touting by Lebed. Lebed continues to tout misinformation and outright lies.

On the 6 of January it stated that, "BVSN is in what will be the HOTTEST industry of 2011 with Facebook's IPO expected in April!"

On the 19th of January in its recent information it touted, "BVSN is finally going to receive the massive exposure it deserves at Digital London and then just a few weeks later in May will be the IPO of Facebook!"

Which in the case of Broadvision has very limited exposure to the social media in terms of revenue. It's other two products (K2 and QuickSilver) continue to decline in revenue and legacy maintenance revenue. ClearVale has not materially changed the outlook of the company and its continued declines in revenue and its cash flow. For four STRAIGHT YEARS Broadvision revenue has declined. Not a company which investors should warm up to if you like valuations to increase. High growth companies such as Netflix, VMWare shares have grown due in part to its expansion in revenue and product lines and strong management. Looking at the the charts Broadvision has been one of the worst performing stocks compared to the DOW, NASDAQ, and its peers.

In a span of a couple of weeks it has already stated a change in date with no sort of correction in its previous touting.

Besides that one issue that was raised by Timothy Sykes a noted independent investor, stated that Broadvision 10-Q filing with the SEC had only $37 million compared to the $56.79 million that Lebed stated. Again, if that were the case then Broadvision is trading a a significant premium over its previous misinformation.

The 10-Q can be founded here: http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=8237436

Lebed continues to mislead investors and the general public regarding companies that it said it has done research. Without hard facts and details companies such as Broadvision are to be avoided.

Feel free to chime in over at the SEC, and file a report against Lebed for stating misinformation and have operations such as Lebed shut down.

http://www.sec.gov/complaint/select.shtml

Jonathan Lebed: Stock Manipulator, S.E.C. Nemesis -- and 15

Here's an interesting read by Michael Lewis regarding Jonathan Lebed who is currently touting stocks over the Internet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/02/25/magazine/25STOCK-TRADER.html

Inflation

I haven't seen much of a change in terms of the short-term trends in terms of employment in the US.

However there was an interesting video clip from MSNBC. Inflation will rear its head throughout this year unless the money printing across the world is contained.

www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080

Scammers target desperate job seekers

There is an interesting article from the Los Angeles Times regarding scams in this difficult work environment.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-job-scams-20101024,0,2286668.story

So be careful when seeking something that maybe too good to be true.

Jobless Update

Here's a great look at what the offical numbers tell in terms of job losses in the United States.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703946504575470001733933356.html?mod=e2tw

Sector Updates

With recent release of 2Q 2010 earnings, I've like to touch on a few points.

It was good to see that revenue ticked up for most of these corporations. Although, I'm still cautious with the early developments of austerity measures in Europe, and the looming regulations and tax regulations in the United States, revenue did improve for the staffing sector.

Profitability does leave something to be desired, until there robust action in terms of revenue that is sustained in a normalized recovery, I am cautiously optimistic on the sector.

June 2010 Unemployment 125,000 Shed

The US continues to face challenges in its labor markets.

125,000 jobs were cut. While the private sector added a less than robust 83,000 jobs. Consensus estimate were for the creation of 110,000 jobs in the private sector.

Over 652,000 people left the labor force.

Average work week hours also declined, from 34.2 to 34.1 hours worked.

The economy continues to experience significant headwinds with cuts from the delayed decision of extended unemployment benefits, to the possible future austerity measures that the US may follow the rest of the world. Time will tell if there will be another jobs bill to stimulus the sluggish recovery.

2009 Unemployment Duration in the United States by State

From the NY Times, unemployment duration in the United States by state. Still a very difficult climate for hiring in the United States.

Italy Facing Persistent Unemployment If Recovery

Bank of Italy governor Mario Draghi warned in a key speech Monday that unemployment in the country is likely to stay persistently high as economic recovery remains slow.

He said the financial crisis had weighed disproportionately on young people. Unemployment in Italy, for people between the ages of 20 and 34, reached an average of 13% in 2009, he said.

The national rate is 8.6% in March.

Starting-level salaries haven't changed much in 15 years, he added.

"A slow recovery increases the probability of persistent unemployment", Draghi said. "This condition, especially at the beginning of a professional career, tends to be associated with permanently lower salaries in the future".

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah states his views

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah was quite temped in his views of the global growth story.

Bob Janjuah states that a massive turnaround in corporate behaviour in leverage, capex, investment, hiring and spending binge is extremely unlike for now and for the rest of this year.

This is a pretty honest assessment after all the rose colored glasses calls of a buoy hiring landscape for the staffing firms. However, premenant placement has barely budged from historical levels, and consumers continue to be selective on their purchasing behavior.

The U.S. also revised its GDP downwards to 3.0% rather than bullish estimates from firms such as Goldman Sachs of 3.7%. Besides that unemployment claims also missed estimates.

May 15 2010 Unemployment Survey Week

With today's release of the unemployment claims for survey week May 15, 2010, claims were above consensus.

471,000 vs. expectations of 440,000.
Continuing claims were also above expectations 4,625,000 vs. expectations of 4,610,000.

Unfortunately, unemployment claims will continue to rise. With the Census staffing most probable ending June 30, 2010 expect a dramatic uptick in weekly claims, and continuing claims.

Besides that business confidence, and continued worries in the Euro Zone, and the lack of collective reasoning in Europe may possibly spread and cause significant slowdowns across major regions of the world.

I have touched on this mainly on Robert Half International's largest segment is the United States , however other staffing groups have also seen very minimal uptick in hiring compared to historical rebounds in the economy. I remain very cautious, and a decline in the economy is more than probable at this point.

Source: DOL

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20100682.htm

Employment Trend Index rises - April 2010

The recovery in the labor markets is broadening out, according to a report released Monday by the Conference Board.

The board said that its April employment trends index increased 0.9% to 94.7, from a revised 93.9 in March, first reported as 94.4. The index has risen for eight consecutive months and is up 7.1% from a year ago.

The ETI report follows last Friday's government employment release that showed nonfarm payrolls increased 290,000 last month.

Despite that strong job gain, the board remains cautious about the jobs outlook.

"The employment trends index continued to rise in April, but its rate of growth has slowed in recent months," said Gad Levanon, associate director.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

Robert Half RHI Q1 2010 Earnings

Robert Half International (RHI) reported Q1 2010 earnings. Robert Half International reportedly missed earnings of .05 vs. analyst estimates of .06.

Revenue was also light of estimates. Q1 2010 revenue $737.2M vs. analyst consensus of $750.76M. Robert Half International although it sustained through the down draft of the financial crisis continues to face slack demand in all components of the company.

When valuations have risen as fast as they have, and demand has been lukewarm from the cyclical bottom, these temporary, and staffing firms continue to produce fairly weak margins.

I continue to see this sector as overvalued relative to the S&P's earnings.

Manpower MAN 2010 Q1 Earnings

Manpower recently reported 2010 Q1 earnings.

Manpower beat the estimates as an analyst from S&P raised their estimates. While Manpower lowered their estimates for the next quarter to set the bar lower ahead of it's acquisition of COMSYS.

The problem with the the increase is primarily the continued weak profitability in Manpower's numbers.

Operating margins in all regions experienced flat to slightly negative operating margins.

With the increase in revenue growth all MAN managed was sub two million in profits. If there is any downturn, and a majority of the analysts have not priced in what a Greece, and PIIGS default would cause to Manpower's underlying business with a bulk of their revenue coming from the European nations. Out of all the majorly traded staffing firms on the NYSE, MAN has the most underlying risk with such a sizable stake of it's business from Europe.

France has a large stake of its bonds in Greece, with over 700+ billion. If Greece were to continue to find itself in limbo, France may find it's own economic growth in jeopardy.

Small businesses don't see recovery panning out

NFIB index dipped from 88 to 86, and has been below the 90 level for 18 consective months.

"According to the NFIB's latest survey, most owners think business conditions will not improve in the next six months, few are hiring, and fewer than usual are investing in their business. "

Source: http://www.nfib.com/tabid/565/Default.aspx?cmsid=51254