Italy Facing Persistent Unemployment If Recovery

Bank of Italy governor Mario Draghi warned in a key speech Monday that unemployment in the country is likely to stay persistently high as economic recovery remains slow.

He said the financial crisis had weighed disproportionately on young people. Unemployment in Italy, for people between the ages of 20 and 34, reached an average of 13% in 2009, he said.

The national rate is 8.6% in March.

Starting-level salaries haven't changed much in 15 years, he added.

"A slow recovery increases the probability of persistent unemployment", Draghi said. "This condition, especially at the beginning of a professional career, tends to be associated with permanently lower salaries in the future".

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah states his views

RBS analyst Bob Janjuah was quite temped in his views of the global growth story.

Bob Janjuah states that a massive turnaround in corporate behaviour in leverage, capex, investment, hiring and spending binge is extremely unlike for now and for the rest of this year.

This is a pretty honest assessment after all the rose colored glasses calls of a buoy hiring landscape for the staffing firms. However, premenant placement has barely budged from historical levels, and consumers continue to be selective on their purchasing behavior.

The U.S. also revised its GDP downwards to 3.0% rather than bullish estimates from firms such as Goldman Sachs of 3.7%. Besides that unemployment claims also missed estimates.

Manpower MAN 2010 Q1 Earnings

Manpower recently reported 2010 Q1 earnings.

Manpower beat the estimates as an analyst from S&P raised their estimates. While Manpower lowered their estimates for the next quarter to set the bar lower ahead of it's acquisition of COMSYS.

The problem with the the increase is primarily the continued weak profitability in Manpower's numbers.

Operating margins in all regions experienced flat to slightly negative operating margins.

With the increase in revenue growth all MAN managed was sub two million in profits. If there is any downturn, and a majority of the analysts have not priced in what a Greece, and PIIGS default would cause to Manpower's underlying business with a bulk of their revenue coming from the European nations. Out of all the majorly traded staffing firms on the NYSE, MAN has the most underlying risk with such a sizable stake of it's business from Europe.

France has a large stake of its bonds in Greece, with over 700+ billion. If Greece were to continue to find itself in limbo, France may find it's own economic growth in jeopardy.

Manpower (MAN) Staffing Updated Valuations March 2010

After pouring over some of the recent competitors and Manpower's latest earnings. Some of the metrics has changed, and some metrics still remain fairly cautious sign of the state of affairs with Manpower.

As Manpower has increased their earnings, valuations have come down. However risks are abound.

I'll provide some near term pros and cons of the stock, please do your own research, as this is not a recommend for the purchase or sale of the securities. I'm only providing my own research.

+ Near term improve in debt. Debt levels has narrowed to 757 Mil.
+ The pending acquisition of IT provider Comsys.

While there are some positive catalyst in places, risk still remains.

-While I am positive on the acquisition of Comsys, Manpower's ability to generate return on invested capital has been very limited. Manpower's return on invested capital is 0.92.
- Weak staffing levels in Europe, with risks associated with the Euro and the debt crisis which risks growth in the European Union. This remains a wild card as analysts from what I've read have not priced the risk of a currency implosion by the Euro. With the IMF, and non bipartisan support through the EU, Manpower's largest industrial partners France and Germany will be somehow affected longer term by the turmoil within the PIIGS. Risks either due to spending cuts, reduced spending by consumers, and increased debt obligations by specific countries.
- Continued pressure on valuations near term with MAN trading at 82.6x earnings, while the S&P500 trades at 11.7, historically MAN trades at a historical p/e of 29.0.
- PEG continues to trade well over one, and has risen back to 5.51.

Two worrisome metrics that continue to place MAN at risk, as business continue to face hurdles:
Historic trends of MAN receiving payment are at elevated levels:

- Days Sales Outstanding

Year

2000 67.2
2001 69.9
2002 71.1
2003 72.3
2004 71.4
2005 73.0
2006 73.2
2007 74.0
2008 68.7
TTM 83.8

- Days Inventory Payable Period

Year 2000 17.4
2001 17.9
2002 17.4
2003 18.2
2004 18.7
2005 19.1
2006 19.9
2007 20.9
2008 20.1
TTM 28.8

As stated there continues to be risk as MAN is having difficulty collecting payment compared to historic levels. I continue to be cautious as Manpower continues to face hurdles within its largest market (France), and pressure with labour regulations and unions in Europe.

The increasingly likely bailout of Greece, and possibly Portugal will have ramifications throughout the EU. The EU has historically been one of the slower growth areas in the global arena. With these spending and debt restructuring Manpower faces increased challenges, even as the global economy bounces from the bottom.

Manpower Q4 2009 / Year Earnings

Manpower released their earnings this morning. They beat their 4th quarter earnings with an EPS of .48 vs .24. Revenue also beat with revenues coming it at 4.412 Billion vs. estimates of 4.160 Billion.

Estimates beat and revenue Delcine have narrowed, although still down.

Q1 2010 guidance of -.05 to -.15 vs. estimates of -.06.

After looking at today's news on Manpower it seems to be a mixed bag. I'm fairly favorable to their new acquisition of COMSYS IT Partners, Inc. The acquisition will allow MAN to jump start their sales growth. However this will come at the cost of their already ballooning debt levels. As long as MAN can improve on this cash flow then their debt will be manageable. Any downturn and MAN will continue to face challenges to its debt levels as Moody's had suggested a number of months ago.

In terms of their earnings which may be muted due to flat to slightly positive growth in their European markets. There are lots of risk involved in their European markets, especially if the PIIGS creates currency instablity for Europe. One risk that underlines this issue is a possible bailout by the IMF, or by France (Manpower's largest market) and Germany. If this situation comes to roost then the European economy may face significant hurdles. And cap privatization growth in France and Germany (Europe largest industrialized nations). While US markets continue to face challenges as taxation and reform will continue to put pressure on hiring. Slack demand has lessen any likelihood of a V shaped recovery.

Valuations will be the next topic of concern for Manpower's, even as revenue dropped less than expected year over year.

Slack hiring

After last week's payroll report hiring remains slack.

• Temporary employment has been increasing. However as an investor beware of the red flags in terms of valuations. The valuations traded by these temporary & human resources are out of kilter with their actual growth. A large number of these stocks have continued to see negative growth. Structural changes in employment take many years before they can be corrected.
• Manufacturing employment continues to decline. This hurts companies such as Manpower (MAN) due to their heavy emphasis in the manufacturing sector.
• The average work week remains at 33.2 hours. Hence if there is a remote pick up in the economy, capacity utilization, along with current work staff will grow. Rather then hiring massive number of temps. Although short term temps look attractive due to the lack of benefits paid out to a majority of temps, temps create low morale and weak productivity on a longer term bases.

Because of the weak outlook by companies for revenue growth open positions, especially permanent positions will be weak at best.

Citigroup upgrades Manpower Staffing and Robert Half Staffing Jan 06 2010

SP500 P/E Ratio

"Citigroup analyst Ashwin Shirvaikar issued a bullish note on the staffing sector early Wednesday, raising ratings on Robert Half International Inc. and Manpower Inc. to buy from hold. He cited "improving signs in the temporary employment sector over the past several months" as well as "optimism on the long-term secular trends in the staffing market" for the moves."

Interesting call by Citigroup Research this morning. I agree that layoffs are steady declining with the latest data. However I am still cautious that valuations have gotten ahead of itself. I'm more concerned with the valuations as pointed out in prior posts of Manpower.

• - Manpower continues to trade at a very rich premium at 1.78 P/B. A price to book near one means value. Clearly the market and speculation from analyst believe that Manpower will return to its glory days such as the Citigroup's analyst boosting its price target to 69. As seen in the price chart MAN is trading above it normalized trading range. MAN has traded well above the growth period during expansion, besides the recent credit induced bubble in 2007. The analyst clearly believes that the economy will produce jobs at such a torrid pace that valuations will be fair. I think we have to remember that permanent jobs provide higher margins. Temporary positions do not provide the valuations that would prop up multiplies of close to 90+x earnings.
  
• - Manpower is trading at a clip of 90+x current p/e, 83x this year's earnings, and 52x next year's earnings. Compared to the SP500 and Nasdaq p/e ratio, Manpower (MAN) is significantly overvalued.
  
• - Revenue continues to be in a significant decline from its high of 2007. While debt levels have continued to rise. For this one reason alone I am a bit more positive on Robert Half (RHI) due to its very minimal debt. Any future shocks in the economy will hurt Manpower's cash flow, and cause another possible downgrade in its credit rating.
  
• - Challenges remain with health reform, higher taxes, quantitative easing of liquidity later this year will continue to crimp hiring by small businesses which produce well over 80% of the jobs in the US.
  
• - Manpower's largest market France has stated that they are looking to reduce their debt levels to the EU standard. The stimulus package that they have provided has provided a slight uptick in their GDP. However challenges remain with the continued contraction in the European markets, especially Eastern Europe.

And last but not least Manpower did warn during their 3Q conference call
that they have warned for their 4Q. Irrational exuberance continues in this
market while actual demand from consumers, and tight and inefficient credit
markets persist.

Manufacturing Up, Jobs Continues To Be Down

Unfortunate as production in the US picks up, jobs continues to be a sore spot for the economy. The following chart via Clusterstock continues to point to questions that I've had for Manpower (MAN) which is heavy in the manufacturing sector.

Manpower Robert Half Valuation

• For the past week there has been bullish sentiment again in the human resource, temp space.

Robert Half International (RHI) received upgrades and revisions to their expectations.

While Manpower (MAN) received an upgrade from Banc of America ML.

I'm a bit more cautious on the space especially with the run up for this past year. Although there has been an improvement in jobs lost; there continues to be an underlying problem in the global economy.

This growth has been fueled by government stimulus and not so much private sector demand. And the growth has been muted by recovery standards. The US for example revised their GDP growth for the 3Q down to 2.2%.

While employment survey after survey still speak to weak to flat growth for Q1 of 2010.

• Valuation alone I would avoid the space till there is more clarity that there will not be a double dip recession. With commercial mortgage and ARMS, debt, and continued restrained spending by the consumer, and depressed wage growth there will be significant challenges abound to job creation.

• Higher taxes in 2010 will be a certainty in the US. And that will depress consumer demand. The risk that this will further depress job creation with demand as slack as it is.

• Valuations have run up to the point where these human resource stocks must meet or blow out its numbers. Take for example Manpower (MAN). I have pointed out MAN due to its lofty valuations in comparison with its competitors.

1. Trading at close to 90x p/e, and on a normalized base close to 60x earnings. And this considering that they have had earnings that have declined with the growth implosion of 2007. I normally track the technology sector where growth is more attractive. Manpower is trading at multiple that are present for a technology company. Unfortunate the last growth that MAN has seen was back in 2007.

Staffing Valuations Manpower MAN Kelly Services KELYA Robert Half RHI

So I was looking at the valuations of staffing firms after the recent run up, and with the 3rd quarter results having been reported.

Please do your own research on the following equities.

Points taken that seems surprising amid the still weak conditions for hiring.

• Among the competition only three had positive earnings, this includes:

1. ComForce (CFS)


2. Manpower (MAN)


3. Robert Half International (RHI)

• Manpower (MAN) and Robert Half International (RHI) are trading at a significant premium to its enterprise value.

• RHI has looked more favorable during its recent quarter. As the data above states they have managed their long term debt levels, and actually have a positive return on assets & equity.

• MAN has continued to look like a balloon that is about to pop. On all metrics its stock has looked expensive. Trading on 86x earnings, market cap that exceed its enterprise value, heavy debt levels compared to its assets and equity, negative return on assets and equity. Margins also look weak compared to the rest of the sector.

As stated in prior posts the staffing sector continues to look fairly rich. RHI looks mildly attractive due to its cost control. While MAN still looks exceedingly rich in its valuations. It is trading as if it is a tech stock without the growth nor the cost control of its peers.

Feel free to chime in to create a discussion.

Manpower MAN Valuation Dec 2 09

Source: Yahoo

I am not recommending a position for MAN. This is my own observation of the valuation for Manpower (MAN). Please do your own research regarding the investment of any equities or bonds.

It is really amazing the run that the temporary employment sector has taken. However is this run up justified when revenue is still down double digits compared to its year over year comps. And down significantly over a two year period.

Take note of the following :

- Manpower's p/e is at one of the industry's high. This stock trades at multiples much higher then the S&P. This as Manpower's revenue and net income have taken an extremely hard hit.

Manpower for the fourth quarter has already warned that their estimates will come in below estimates. This comes as analyst have not raised Manpower's estimates that far from the median. The notion that Manpower is unable to meet already low expectations speaks volumes with regards to the condition of the macro economy.

There's talk of how management has been managing Manpower beat the industry with its superior management. I tend to disagree when your revenue and net income have taken a significant hit for the past couple of years, along with the baggage of significant debt on its balance sheet. If we are in for another dip in the economy as a number of economist have suggested, credit conditions will become increasingly tight. Already there is worry concerning the 2010 pending tax increase, and pending health care costs forced by the government.

- PEG ratio. Normally a PEG ratio near 1 means that a stock will have a higher chance at out performing. However MAN is at a significant premium based on the PEG ratio alone. MAN trades at over 8x the mean, while the industry is trading at 3x multiples. This is a significant premium to pay for a company that has declining revenue, and net income, and increasing debt.

- P/B. The price to book looks cheaper compared to the industry. However when you look at the Manpower's historical p/e ratio it has not significantly traded higher to its current multiples. And that is with significantly higher sales, and revenue. S&P which had changed their metrics of evaluating MAN from P/E to P/B, downgraded their rating to SELL, and lowered it price target to 46.

So I would trend very carefully as employment will not rocket back with a vengeance. Consumers have not significantly increased their spending, and manufacturing has ticked down. There are many issues in the economy that continues to need to be resolved before employment stocks begin to look attractive again.

Manpower 3Q 09 better then expected; 4Q 09 Warning

Manpower reported earnings .09 better then First Call estimates, and revenues fell 26.0% year over year at $4.19 billion versus 3.95 Billion consensus.

Manpower issues downside guidance for the 4th quarter. It sees EPS of .17 - .27 vs. .28 consensus.

"We continued to experience sluggish demand for our services as the labor markets throughout the world were hampered by lack of demand for companies' products and services."

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Pretty lackluster report. Margins was lower then anticipated, cost controls were not as strong as they could have been. Debt continues to restrict MAN from making sound investment.

Took some one time charges, which wasn't advantageous to their bottom line.

Guidance was very weak compared to the comps, which I have been very vocal that even after today's drop in stock price is dramatically overvalued.

-Dividend.com advised it's readers to sell prior to earnings.

-S&P Research advised its clients to sell MAN, after Manpower announced its earnings.

Near term this stock should continue to fall, as their just reported quarter is historically their strongest of the year. The 4th qt. may become seasonally weak, which they have already warned in their guidance. Guidance was extremely disappointing considering that most analysts had very tepid estimates, and didn't raise much in terms of their estimates as Manpower's stock appreciated. Still MAN is having continued operating problems. Since 2007, its earnings, net income, and EPS has declined year o/ year.

Manpower MAN Valuation October 2009

So recently Citigroup Research has downgraded its rating near term of Manpower from "Buy" to "Hold", I will touch my own opinion of the valuations of MAN. Please do your own research with regards to the buying and selling of equities. I am not endorsing or advocating for the direction of a position.

From the near term analysis, MAN still seems overvalued.

P/E aspect MAN trades at 75.5 times current earnings. This should improve as MAN sales improve. However, at current mutiples this is well ahead of its valuation versus the SP and its peers.

Price to Book is also another metric to value a stock. Currently MAN trades at 1.72 which is well above its fair book value.

The yield of MAN is also below that of the SP. MAN current yield is 1.32%. The average is about 2.65 for the SP. Remember that compounded dividend may help your investment grow and offset any near term losses.

MAN's current profit margins of .7% also leaves growth oriented investors to be very cautious. Stock prices usually follow bursting sales and net income. EPS is a -82.09% and sales are a -35.70% for the year compared to last year.

Profit margins also continue to be very uneven, thus difficult to project business activity due to the nature of this cyclical cycle. Current year is 1.02%, last year 2.36%, two years ago it was 2.27%.

MAN also has a debt load, currently at 33.10%. Companies borrow to expand, however as sales falls, and credit conditions remain tight it is advised to look at companies that don't need to borrow, or leverage themselves as much to grow. If another recession becomes present in the near term once this initial stimulus wears off, then this debt may possibly become a problem.

So the bottom line, is that growth oriented investors should look elsewhere for a better story. Value investors should probably look elsewhere for a higher yield. While, those that fall in between should wait and see earnings on the 21st of this month. This is important as MAN projects this to be their strongest quarter of the year. However, will this justify their current valuation. At the mutiples of well over 75x current earnings, and with sales and profit margins as weak as they are, MAN should not be trading at the current multiples. It is out of line versus its peers and versus the market. If there are any questions regarding this analysis feel free to shoot a comment, and I will be more then happy to respond.

Sept 2009 Unemployment Numbers

Pretty bleak numbers came out this past Friday.

263,000 jobs lost vs. estimate of 175,000

Job losses up to 7.2 million

While the unemployment rate edged up to 9.8%

785,000 had stated that they were not working through a household study, rather then employer study.

U-6 rises from 16.8% to 17%. A clear tale that businesses continue to generate weak business growth for their products and services. The U-6 includes part-timers who want  full-time work but can't find one.

Weekly hours ticked down from 33.1 to 33.0. This continues to be a weak number especially when employers tend to add hours to current employees rather then hire temporary workers at the first sign of an improving economy. Staffing firms such as Robert Half, Manpower have said they see some regions stabilize. However, most regions continue to be weak in growth. I will touch on the point that certain stocks in this sector continue to be richly and overly priced.

52% of Unemployment Benefits Expired

With the recent US government data from the source below over half of those that qualify for unemployment has there benefits expired. There continues to be significant weakness in the labour markets. Although, there has been a slight rebound in jobs lost jobs are not created at the level that leads to growth. Presently there are two million college educated graduates unable to attain jobs, let alone the countless numbers with experience and skills who continue to face grave job market conditions. Once this stimulus works itself through the system and does not create the types of sustainable job growth look for this economy to continue to trend down. 

Source: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claimssum.asp

Weekly Jobless Claims Down, Continuing Claims Rise

The Labor Department has come out with its weekly jobless claims, and we are current faced with a very weak market for job growth. Numbers were down 12,000 revised to 545,000. The consensus was 575,000, while the prior figure last week was 550,000 on an unrevised basis and went up to 557,000.

The four week average fell by 8,750 to 563,000.  Continuing claims for the unemployed continues to rise, the figures rose by 129,000 to 6.23 million.  The figures from the prior week would have rose even more if Labour Day wasn't present.

1 out of 10 are out of work on a official figure basis, while 1 out of 10 are either working part-time or under employed. Weekly jobless figures have to be down to 400,000 to see a healthy economy develop.

MAN Manpower Stock Valuations

So looking at the human resource/business services sector I'll put my opinion on the current valuations of Manpower. I picked Manpower because its valuation were the most out of line with its peer group.

With the recent business outlook survey, not all markets are created equally. I still believe that their larger markets will continue to face downside risk as employment remains choppy. A large portion of their revenue comes from the European market. The US market which is about 10% of Manpower's revenue's will be the first movers in the up tick in hiring. Still conditions in the US remain flat at best for hiring, with no robust outlook for the 4th quarter. Hiring continues to be muted till firms and small businesses find that there is a solid ground for this recovery. This recovery has been mostly stimulus funded. Private businesses which make the brunt of the jobs in the United States continue to face credit limitations and conditions that are less to their liking as the yesteryear. On a macro scale jobs continue to be scare. With an average of six applicants for every free opening, this also challenges the notion that temporary jobs are coming back with a vengeance. Temporary positions also continue to be scare and at a reduced hourly workload. With the average work week of permanent employees at 33.1 hours per week, what would the average temp worker get? These are some serious structural issues that everyone needs to ponder. Many of these jobs that were lost in this recession will not come back. And many workers will need to retrain and possess additional skills to find work.

The stock trades at a lofty valuation. At seventy-one times earnings, while the industry is a negative forty-six, and the S&P trading at eighteen times earnings, Manpower is very expensive compared to its industrial peers and to the S&P. While having very poor earnings and net income growth for the past two years. Unless you feel that valuations at this point merits the lofty valuations then you may look at taking a stake, however at its current valuations there are many other companies that offer significantly more upside and more consistent growth.

Some have said that they have changed the way they value MAN to Price to Book which places MAN at 1.6, while the industry at 2.62, and the S&P at 2.1. This looks historically cheaper then its average, however you also have to take into account how depressed Manpower's business is compared to historical levels. Unemployment around the world still continues to remain at elevated levels. Either way MAN is nearing the top if not the top of their valuations.

Book value is about thirty-two plus dollars a share. While intrinsic value is about forty-two dollars. Either way you are paying a significant premium compared to its peers. Earnings and growth usually lead to price appreciation in shares. Earnings and net income has continued to decline for this past year at alarming levels. At its current valuation you can make the case that MAN is overvalued.

Debt is another issue to be on the side of caution. Manpower has over 873+ million in debt. Manpower also has over 1.1 billion in cash. This all seems well and good, however if there is a protracted decline in their revenue, and net income this cash will continue to face pressure. In this environment there are plenty of companies that are operating at zero to minimal debt trading at much less of a premium compared to the market and its peer group. This includes many technology names with faster growth then say the highly competitive human resources sector. Technology will be the driver of innovation and expansion going forward, either through increases in demand, or through cost cutting. Hiring will remain flat or a tepid bounce from its bottom.

Please do your due diligence regarding your own research on MAN. The information that I provide is just a starter to your own research. The information is out there, and I am just providing a stepping stone for this research. It never hurts to research the holdings that you hold to make sound and educated decisions for long term appreciation.

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Indicates World's Labor Markets Will Still Be Challenged in Fourth Quarter 2009, but Many Headed in the Right Direc

"According to the global Manpower Employment Outlook Survey results released today by Manpower Inc., the fourth quarter of 2009 will continue to challenge job seekers in labor markets around the world, but employer hiring expectations have improved somewhat from three months ago in nearly two thirds of the countries and territories surveyed, suggesting an easing in the pattern of job cuts prevalent for several quarters. Hiring plans are strongest in the emerging markets of India and Brazil, while job prospects remain weak in the United States. However, a greater percentage of U.S. employers expect to keep staff levels unchanged in the quarter ahead, suggesting some stability. Across Europe, hiring sentiments remain generally negative but forecasts have improved in nearly half of the countries compared to the third-quarter forecast."

"Job seekers will still have limited opportunities as our data shows the world's labor markets will not experience recovery in the fourth quarter. The good news is that many markets appear to be heading in the right direction with results from 20 countries and territories showing positive movement from three months ago," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of Manpower Inc. "Interestingly, employers in emerging markets are more optimistic about hiring compared to their counterparts in more developed economies. While a quarter-over-quarter comparison shows modest improvements in six of the G7 countries, with the exception of Canada, all are reporting negative hiring expectations. As demand for their products and services continues to be weak, employers remain very selective in their hiring process, resulting in a sluggish job market."

Employers in 17 of 35 countries and territories surveyed expect some positive hiring activity in the quarter ahead, while those in 15 report negative hiring expectations with 10 reporting their weakest hiring plans since the survey was established. Employers in 31 countries and territories are reporting weaker year-over-year forecasts. Fourth-quarter hiring plans are strongest in India, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, China, Australia, Singapore, Costa Rica, Canada, Taiwan and Poland and weakest in Romania, Spain, Ireland, Japan and Mexico.

Many employers in the 18 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region continue to report negative hiring expectations for the quarter ahead, with employers in Poland, Norway, Sweden and South Africa reporting the only positive, but slow, hiring activity. However, compared to three months ago, outlooks improved in eight EMEA countries. In contrast, where year-over-year comparisons can be made, hiring intentions are weaker in 15 countries. Job prospects in the region are strongest in Poland and weakest in Romania.

"Eighty percent of employers in Europe are telling us they will make no changes to their staffs, which will most likely lead to some labor market stability in the fourth quarter," said Joerres. "European job seekers in the Manufacturing sector will continue to encounter a difficult market, particularly in Germany, where employers lower their hiring expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter."

Employment prospects have improved in comparison to the third quarter across six of the eight countries and territories surveyed in the Asia Pacific region. However, hiring activity is expected to be slower than historical patterns across the region. Employment prospects are strongest in India, China and Australia with the weakest and only negative outlooks reported in Japan and New Zealand. Compared to 12 months ago, employer hiring expectations are weaker in all countries and territories, most notably in Japan, India and Hong Kong.

"Indian employers have absorbed the layoffs conducted in the third quarter and are telling us they will begin hiring again at a conservative pace, but most intend to keep their workforces intact through the end of the year. Government stimulus efforts around infrastructure projects are contributing to accelerated hiring plans in India's Mining and Construction sector," said Joerres. "Meanwhile, hiring expectations in China are among the most optimistic of the year, with outlooks improving from three months ago across all industry sectors, particularly in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and the Services sectors."

Across the nine countries surveyed in the Americas region, hiring expectations have improved from three months ago in all countries with the exception of the U.S. and Mexico, where hiring plans of employers in both countries are at their weakest since Manpower established the survey. On the other hand, year-over-year comparisons reveal weaker hiring activity throughout the region. Manpower surveyed Brazilian employers for the first time this quarter.

"The solid job prospects in Brazil are being bolstered by the Services sector where 37 percent of employers expect to add employees in the quarter ahead. Employer optimism in Canada bounces back into positive territory with the Construction and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate sectors holding the most promise for job seekers," said Joerres. "To the south, the U.S. and Mexican labor markets continue to struggle in tandem, with the majority of employers continuing hiring freezes, opting instead to get work done with the staff they have until conditions improve."

Source: Manpower

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With this report, it shows that Manpower's largest market including France, and the United States have not shown robust growth. Hence, with valuations in question be cautious going forward with this choppy return some stability.

Disclosure: No affiliation with Manpower.

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Projects a Weak Hiring Pace for Q4 2009

"U.S. employers plan to keep their staffing levels relatively stable during Quarter 4 2009, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.

"The hiring intentions of U.S. companies continue to be sluggish," said Manpower Inc. Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres. "While there are areas within the U.S. which are showing an uptick, we have yet to see the robust hiring intentions that would indicate a full labor market recovery."

Of the more than 28,000 employers surveyed, a significant 69% expect no change in their October - December hiring plans. Twelve percent anticipate an increase in staff levels, while 14% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of -2%. After seasonal adjustment, the Net Employment Outlook becomes -3%, the weakest in the history of the survey, which began in 1962. The final 5% of employers indicated they were undecided about their hiring intentions.

"Despite some moderating signs, such as the considerable number of employers that plan to maintain or increase staff levels, there will continue to be challenges for both job seekers and employers in the coming months," said Jonas Prising, Manpower president of the Americas. "Hiring in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, for instance, is expected to be down in the fourth quarter, suggesting that employers will not be adding the quantity of holiday hires they have in the past.""

Source: Manpower

Fewer planning to add in the 4Q 2009

"The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released Tuesday shows 8 percent of surveyed employers in the area plan to hire workers from October to December, while 9 percent are planning to cut employees. Three-quarters of all surveyed employers aren’t planning any change for staffing levels, while 8 percent said they’re uncertain of hiring plans.

The nationwide outlook for the fourth quarter found more employers planning to take action, though more are eyeing cuts than additions. Manpower’s national survey of more than 28,000 employers found 12 percent plan to hire, 14 percent plan to cut and 69 percent don’t plan any changes.

Manpower noted that while the majority of employers plans to hold staffing levels steady or add workers, the employment outlook for the fourth quarter was weaker for all regions of the U.S. compared with last year. The outlook for the Midwest, compared with other regions, was stable, the Milwaukee-based firm said."

Source: Business First

As I have continued to point out that growth in hiring continues to be weak. Moving along the bottom does not mean growth. It'll be interesting to see if the stimulus will lead to job growth or not. Without a temporary pop in the growth of jobs, another recession maybe coming.