Fewer Layoffs Won't Mean More Jobs

"Companies, still wary of weak consumer demand, aren't doing much hiring. The trend could keep unemployment high for the next year.

Businesses will remain hesitant to hire as long as overall demand remains subdued, and that is almost certain to be the case in the coming year. Spending in the U.S. and elsewhere stabilized last quarter, but the lion's share of growth in the second half will come from companies replenishing their depleted inventories rather than from a resurgence in demand. Plus, businesses remain keen on cutting costs and keeping productivity high. Productivity, measured as output per hour worked, soared at a revised 6.6% annual rate last quarter, and another big gain is on tap for this quarter."

Source: Business Week

Add to this issue is the structural unemployment issue. There are those in the camp that say that temporary workers will be hired back first because companies may want to test out their demand thesis for additional workforce. The problem is that many positions will never return. These are those that are affected by structural unemployment.

Employers currently in the United States have a lot of leverage in terms of their workforce. Those are still hanging onto their jobs may get increased hours which is currently at 33.1 hours worked per work week. Say if an employer needs more production, they can invite their current work staff to bang out more nuts and bolts. Hence, this will in my opinion continue to be a weak environment for hiring.

Why You Can't Trust Those Jobs Figures

There was an interesting piece in Forbes (which I normally don't read) yesterday regarding the jobs numbers. It seems pretty clear cut to say that nobody should really trust these unemployment numbers. As they don't tell the whole truth of the unemployed.

"He says the U.S. is in a depression, and though the economy may have hit a “plateau,” it’s not about to rebound, as many stock investors apparently assume."

"Williams also doesn’t buy the official unemployment rates, which are based on a separate survey from the one used for the payroll numbers. He notes that in calculating its broadest jobless rate, the so-called "U-6," the Labor Department in 1994 stopped including unemployed workers who had stopped looking for a job for more than year. As this recession drags on, and despair over finding jobs mounts, that’s likely to distort the true labor picture.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate in July was 9.4%, one-tenth of percentage point lower than in June. The U-6 rate, which includes frustrated part-timers as well as those who have stopped looking, also fell slightly, to 16.3%. Williams figures that broader rate hit 20.6%, 25% higher than the government figure."

That's a very depressing sign if rates are actually as high as Williams suggests. Shadowstats has the same depressing outlook for the jobs market. I would even suggest that this temporary blip in hiring will face downwards pressure as once the stimulus runs its course. There is still plenty of risk that we might have to hit a double bottom in our economy to continue to weed out the excess capacity.

Source:http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/08/jobs-unemployment-layoffs-business-washington-figures.html?feed=rss_popstories

IBM union Layoffs could hit 16,000 by year's end

IBM is reducing headcount in the United States.

"This means that the best information on IBM's workforce reduction in the U.S. come from two sources: The company's own annual report, which shows the year-to-year changes in its U.S. workforce, and the Alliance@IBM.

The Alliance says it has counted about 184 employees who have been laid off in the most recent round of cuts, based on employee information packets it received so far. But it believes the number exceeds that, according to Lee Conrad, the union's national coordinator.
In January, Conrad estimated that as many as 16,000 employees may be cut this year and it's standing by that figure. Based on its count so far, at least 10,000 employees have already been culled from the workforce because of the recession and offshoring.

"It is not right that IBM continues to keep job cut numbers, locations and divisions secret," said Conrad in an email. "IBM needs to come clean on how many jobs are being terminated as the work is offshored. We call for full transparency." The Alliance@IBM is a Communications Workers of America local that doesn't have enough members to gain official recognition as a bargaining unit."

Handbook for the unemployed

This is a good site for those that are unemployed and need to gather themselves in these difficult times.

http://www.revivalcircle.com/